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"Perubahan (kenaikan) harga minyak internasional mempunyai dampak ekonomi yang besar pada negara pengimpor minyak ncto. Untuk melihat pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional pada perekonomian domestik maka diperlukan model yang mampu menangkap perilaku pelaku ekonomi yang mempunyai ekspektasi terhadap setiap perubahan. Sementara model makro ekonometri struktural tidak dapat digunakan untuk pembentukan kebijakan karena mengandung Lucas Critique. Disertasi ini menganalisis pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional pada variabel makroekonomi dan respon kebijakan moneter di Indonesia dengan menggunakan model Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, Model makroekonomi ini adalah berdasarkan mikroekonomi dalam New Keynesian tradition. Model memasukan minyak untuk konsumsi rumah tangga dan faktor input dalam produksi, Parameter dalam model diestimasi melalui metode Bayesian dengan teknik simulasi Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Metode ini mengkombinasikan prior information dan data historis. Parameter estimasi menunjukkan karakteristik perekonomian Indonesia. Perilaku rumah tangga dipengaruhi oleh cukup tingginya tingkat habit persistence dalam konsumsi, rendahnya clastisitas penawaran tenaga kerja, rendahnya elastisitas substitusi konsumsi produk minyak dan produk non-minyak, dan rendahnya elastisitas substitusi konsumsi barang-barang domestik dan barang-barang luar negeri. Produsen Iebih sering melakukan pengaturan harga ulang dibanding pengaturan kembali upah optimal dengan tingkat penyesuaian terhadap inflasi periode lalu untuk upah lebih besar daripada harga. Elastisitas substitusi tenaga kerja dan minyak dalam produksi dan elastisitas permintaan barang domestik kc luar negeri mempunyai nilai yang rendah. Selanjutnya, respon kebijakan moneter berupa interest rate reaction function (Taylor rule) menghasilkan parameter estimasi yang sesuai dengan Strategi kebijakan Bank Indonesia. Walaupun penelitian ini memiliki keterbatasan, model ini masih mampu memberikan simulasi impulse response untuk menjelaskan perilaku dinamis perekonomian dan menggambarkan mekanisme transmisi pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional di Indonesia.

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The change (increase) of intcmational oil price causes immense economic impact to net oil-importer countries. In order to observe the influence ofthe change of international oil price in domestic economy, it is necessary to use a model which can contain the behavior of the agents who have expectation to every change. However, the model of structural macro econometric cannot be applied to construct policy for thc reason that it contains Lucas Critique. This dissertation analyzes the influence of the change of international oil price to the variables macroeconomic and the response of the monetaiy policy in Indonesia, using the model of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. This macroeconomic model is based on the microeconomic foundation in New Keynesian tradition, The model includes oil for household consumption and input factor in production, The parameter in the model is estimated by using Bayesian method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniquc. This method combines prior information and historical data. Estimation parameter describes the characteristics of Indonesia's economy. The household behavior is affected by the moderately high level of habit persistence in consumption, the low elasticity of labor supply, the low elasticity of substitution between oil and non-oil consumption goods, and the low elasticity of substitution between domestic and Foreign consumption goods. Producers tend to instantaneously make pricing adjustment more fiequent than making wage re-optimizadon by way of amendment amount to the past inflation period for wage higher than price. The elasticity of substitution between labor and oil in production, and the elasticity of demands for domestic goods hom foreign countries are low. Subsequently, the response of the monetary policy in form of interest rate reaction function (Taylor rule) results the estimation parameter which is suitable to the policy strategy from Bank Indonesia. Despite the imperfection of this study, the model can still give impulse response simulation to explain dynamic behaviour of economy and to illustrate the transmission mechanism for the influence of the change of international oil price in Indonesia."

"[ABSTRAKPemasaran adalah tentang menawarkan proposisi nilai yang superior.Fenomena akhir akhir ini megindikasikan bahwa produk ataupun service sebagaiproposisi nilai tidak lagi mencukupi untuk berperan sebagai nilai ataupun alatdiferensiasi dan nilai tersebut telah berpindah ke penciptaan pengalamanpelanggan. Mengadaptasi teori merek pengalaman dari ranah pemasaran dan teoripengalaman dari ranah pariwisata, disertasi ini berusaha menyusun sebuah modelkomprehensif pengalaman merek destinasi. Penelitian mengambil kasus Balisebagai destinasi wisata dan dilakukan melalui tiga tahap, wawancara pendekdengan metode SPACE matrix, Focus Group Discussion dan survey kuisioner.Hasil penelitian berhasil mengidentifikasi anteseden dan konsekuensi dari modelpengalaman merek destinasi dan membuktikan bahwa pengalaman merekdestinasi dan keaslian merek destinasi mempunyai pengaruh penting dalamkesetiaan merek pelanggan dalam konteks destinasi pariwisata;

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ABSTRACTThis dissertation is driven from the notion that marketing is all aboutoffering superior value. It is suggested that the traditional product and servicevalue proposition is no longer adequate and the meaning of value is rapidlyshifting to experiences. Adapting branding theory from marketing and experiencefrom tourism, this dissertation developed a comprehensive and holistic model ofdestination brand experience. This includes investigating its antecedents,consequences and relationships within the model with loyalty. The researchconsisted of three phases with combination of methodologies: Strategic Positionand Competitive Evaluation (SPACE), Focus Group Discussion and aquestionnaire survey, and took Bali as the destination case. The result hasprovided a context background, identified and validated antecedent andconsequences of destination brand experience. Moreover, it proved thatdestination brand experience has significant relationship to destination brandloyalty. It also showed that destination brand authenticity has a mediation role inthe relationship between destination brand experience and destination brandloyalty;This dissertation is driven from the notion that marketing is all aboutoffering superior value. It is suggested that the traditional product and servicevalue proposition is no longer adequate and the meaning of value is rapidlyshifting to experiences. Adapting branding theory from marketing and experiencefrom tourism, this dissertation developed a comprehensive and holistic model ofdestination brand experience. This includes investigating its antecedents,consequences and relationships within the model with loyalty. The researchconsisted of three phases with combination of methodologies: Strategic Positionand Competitive Evaluation (SPACE), Focus Group Discussion and aquestionnaire survey, and took Bali as the destination case. The result hasprovided a context background, identified and validated antecedent andconsequences of destination brand experience. Moreover, it proved thatdestination brand experience has significant relationship to destination brandloyalty. It also showed that destination brand authenticity has a mediation role inthe relationship between destination brand experience and destination brandloyalty, This dissertation is driven from the notion that marketing is all aboutoffering superior value. It is suggested that the traditional product and servicevalue proposition is no longer adequate and the meaning of value is rapidlyshifting to experiences. Adapting branding theory from marketing and experiencefrom tourism, this dissertation developed a comprehensive and holistic model ofdestination brand experience. This includes investigating its antecedents,consequences and relationships within the model with loyalty. The researchconsisted of three phases with combination of methodologies: Strategic Positionand Competitive Evaluation (SPACE), Focus Group Discussion and aquestionnaire survey, and took Bali as the destination case. The result hasprovided a context background, identified and validated antecedent andconsequences of destination brand experience. Moreover, it proved thatdestination brand experience has significant relationship to destination brandloyalty. It also showed that destination brand authenticity has a mediation role inthe relationship between destination brand experience and destination brandloyalty]"

"Macroeconomic untuk Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia. Disertasi ini mencoba untuk mengembangkan dan mengestimasi Model New Keynesian Small Macroeconomic (NKSM) untuk kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Model ini berlandaskan pada simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium yang memfokuskan pada suku bunga nominal sebagai instrumen kebijakan moneter untuk stabilisasi harga. Aspek pengembangan model ini adalah dengan memperhatikan defisit fiskal yang diwakili oleh rasio hutang pemerintah terhadap GDP. Parameterisasi model yang digunakan yaitu dengan Generalized Method of Moments dan teknik kalibrasi (algoritma Gausse-Siegel) untuk perarnalan tiga tahun ke depan. Hasil pengujian koelisien model adalah sangat signifikan yang menunjukkan bahwa model NKSM valid untuk Indonesia. Dari hasil simulasi model yaitu kenailcan rasio hutang pemerintah terhadap GDP sebesar 3% pada tahun 2009 akan meningkatkan output gap secara sementara selama 3-4 kuartal dan secara bersarnaan menimbulkan crowding out. Dampak crowding out menimbulkan inflasi yang lebih kecil dari baseline, sehingga respon sulcu bunga nominal lebih kecil dari baseline.

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This dissertation attempts to develop and estimate New Keynesian Small Macroeconomic (NKSM) Model for monetary policy in Indonesia. This model based on the simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium that focuses on the nominal interest rate as a monetary policy instrument for price stabilization. An aspect of the development of this model is to consider the fiscal deficit represented by the ratio of govemment debt to GDP. Parameterizes of the model is used the Generalized Method of Moments and calibration techniques (algorithms Gausse-Siegel) to forecast next three years. Results testing hypotesis of model?s coefficients is very significant that indicates that the model NKSM valid for Indonesia. 'lhe results of the simulation model, namely the increasing debt to GDP ratio of 3% in the year 2009 will increase the output gap during the 3-4 quarter and while at the same time cause crowding out. The impact of crowding out cause inflation lower than baseline, so the response of nominal interest rate is smaller than baseline."