Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"[ABSTRAKFenomena yang dihadapi masyarakat Indonesia pada akhir tahun 2014adalah kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium akibat pemotongansubsidi.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti adanya pengaruh tingkat hargaPremium terhadap perilaku berpindah merek dari produk subsidi ke produk Nonsubsidi.Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif dengan menggunakan 142responden yang merupakan konsumen bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium dalamkurun waktu tiga bulan terakhir dari pengambilan data.Instrumen penelitian inimenggunakan kuesioner.Metode pengolahan data menggunakan analisisdiskriminan dengan menggunakan SPSS 20.0.Hasil penelitian menunjukanterdapat pengaruh tingkat harga bahan bakar minyak jenisPremium terhadapperilaku berpindah merek konsumen Premium.Penelitian ini juga mengungkapkanpengaruh etnosentrisme terhadap keputusan berpindah ke Pertamax atau pindahke Non-Pertamina.Hasil penelitian menyarankan kepada Pertamina untuksenantiasa mengevaluasi kebijakan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium danmemberikan pendekatan pesan yang berbeda bagi konsumen dengan tingkatkecenderungan etnosentrisme yang berbeda;

---

ABSTRACTDuring the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency., During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in thesubsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuelsubsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price leveltowards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax"or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondentwhom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may).The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed usingdiscriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect ofsubsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switchingbehaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the"Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging theconsumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.]"

"Minyak nilam merupakan salah satu komoditi ekspor yang dimiliki Indonesia yang cukup tinggi nilainya, namun demikian hal tersebut tidak bisa dirasakan manfaatnya secara signifikan di tingkat petani maupun penyuling sebagai produsen utama komoditas ini, ditambah lagi dengan masalah tingkat permintaan dunia yang kian tak seimbang dengan pertumbuhan produksi nilam di Indonesia.Fenomena terjadinya naik-turun harga komoditi minyak nilam memainkan peranan penting dalam perkembangan agroindustri komoditi ini. Banyak para pengusaha yang tidak dapat bertahan, akhirnya memberhentikan sementara atau bahkan menutup usahanya pada saat harga komoditi ini jatuh pada nilai terendah (< Rp.150.000). Begitupun juga sebaliknya, pada saat harga komoditi ini berada pada nilai tertinggi (> Rp.1.200.000), banyak pula bermunculan pemain-pemain baru pada bidang usaha ini, yang pada akhirnya hal ini juga menyebabkan terjadinya kembali penurunan harga komoditi ini.Tujuan dari Penelitian ini adalah untuk memperoleh faktor-faktor yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan harga produk minyak nilam. Selain itu, perlu ditentukan faktor yang memiliki kontribusi pengaruh relatif lebih besar dibandingkan dengan faktor-faktor lainnya terhadap perubahan harga produk minyak nilam di Jawa Barat.Faktor-faktor yang dijadikan konstruk atau variabel berdasarkan penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya adalah 1).Sistem Permodalan, 2).Peran Pemerintah, 3).Sumber Daya Manusia, 4).Sistem Pemasaran, 5).Ketersediaan Produk, 6).Kualitas Produk, dan 7).Harga sebagai variabel dependen. Metode yang digunakan di dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan mengaplikasikan Structural Equation Modeling yang diperoleh melalui pengolahan data dengan menggunakan software Lisrel8.50 . Garis besar tahapan-tahapan di dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan melakukan pengujian terhadap model pengukuran masing-masing konstruk dan model struktural untuk dapat menjawab hipotesis penelitian.Berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang dilakukan, semua variabel atau konstruk yang telah dihipotesiskan secara signifikan mempengaruhi terhadap kontruk harga produk minyak nilam, kecuali pengaruh konstruk sistem permodalan terhadap kualitas produk pada responden petani, dan pengaruh konstruk sistem permodalan terhadap ketersediaan produk pada responden penyuling.Berdasarkan hasil pengujian yang dilakukan, faktor yang memiliki nilai kontribusi terbesar pada kedua kelompok responden adalah pada faktor sistem pemasaran, sehingga disarankan pada pihak pemerintah sebagai salah satu stakeholder pada bidang agroindustri ini untuk dapat memfasilitasi terbangunnya sistem kemitraan yang dapat mempersatukan seluruh pihak yang terlibat pada rantai pemasaran komoditas minyak nilam ini, agar dicapai tujuan pengembangan agroindustri minyak nilam di Jawa Barat yang berkelanjutan dan dapat dijadikan salah satu motor penggerak ekonomi di daerah Jawa Barat.

---

Patchouli oil is one of export commodity of Indonesia that has high value. But however, this fact could not give any significant contribution to the prosperity of the farmers and distillers as the main producer of the commodity, and the other problem is the excelsior demand of the world is not followed by the increasing of the Indonesian patchouli oil production.

The phenomena of price rise and fall by the commodity is playing the important role in the development of this agro industry. There are many distillers who could not survived due to the price fluctuation, finally given up the business, when the price falls to the lower level (< Rp.150.000). And so does when the situation changed to the highest level of price (> Rp.1.200.000), there will be a lot of new players to the business, that eventually leads to the falls of the commodity price.

The objective of this research is to obtain the factors that significantly affect the price of the patchouli oil product. On the other hand, it necessary to determine the main factor that has a biggest contribution compared to the other factors toward the change of the commodity price.

The factors taken based on the previous researchs are to become the constructs or variables on the research are 1).Capital System, 2).Government Roles, 3).Human Resources, 4).Marketing System,

5).Product Availability, 6).Product Quality, and 7).The Price of product as the dependent variable. The method of this research is by applying the Structural Equation Modeling that gained by

mining the data using the Lisrel 8.50 software. The main steps on this method is to test the

measurement of variables and structural model to answer the research hypothesis.

Based on the conducted research, all the variables that have been hypothesised significantly affect toward the product price?s construct, except on the effect of capital system?s construct toward the product quality at farmers respondent, and on the effect of capital system?s construct toward the product availability at distillers respondent.

Based on conducted test, the factor that has the biggest contribution among all others at both of sample groups is marketing system, so it suggested to the government, as one of the stakeholder of this agro industry to facilitate the partnership that could unite all the parties involved on the marketing chain of this commodity, in order to develop the sustainable patchouli oil agro industry in West Java to take the role of economic motor activator in West Java."

"

Studi ini menganalisis hubungan trilateral antara variabel makroekonomi dan pasar modal melalui harga minyak, indeks pasar saham, dan kurs untuk mengamati keterkaitan antar ketiga variabel dalam economic setup Indonesia. Periode yang diselidiki mencakup data deret waktu harian mulai dari 1 januari 2016 hingga 10 Maret 2023. Penelitian ini terdiri dari tiga sub-periode: periode pre-Covid-19 atau sebelum pandemi Covid-19 mulai dari 1 Januari 2016 hingga 8 Maret 2020, periode Covid-19 mulai dari 9 Maret 2020 hingga 10 Maret 2023, dan periode keseluruhan mulai dari 1 januari 2016 hingga 10 Maret 2023 dengan menggunakan model Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak berubah, maka indeks saham memiliki hubungan negatif signifikan secara statistik selama periode Covid-19 dan periode gabungan. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa indeks saham memiliki hubungan negatif pada periode gabungan, hubungan positif pada sebelum pandemi Covid-19, dan hubungan negatif pada saat pandemi Covid-19 terhadap kurs. Penelitian ini memberikan Hasil penelitian ini juga membuktikan bahwa indeks saham berperan sebagai transmission channel pada antara harga minyak ke kurs. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan bantuan pada investor dan trader pasar saham dan forex untuk menganalisis pergerakan harga saham untuk peluang investasi yang lebih baik di masa depan. Selanjutnya, penelitian ini menyajikan relevansi praktis bagi investor pasar saham bahwa ketidakpastian kesehatan dapat berhubungan yang tidak signifikan antara harga minyak dengan indeks pasar saham yang ternyata hubungan ini signifikan selama periode pandemi.

 

 

---

This study analyzes the trilateral relationship between macroeconomic and capital market variables through oil prices, stock market indexes, and exchange rates to observe the relationship between the three variables in Indonesia's economic setup . The period investigated includes daily time series data from January 1, 2016 to March 10, 2023. This study consists of three sub-periods: the pre-Covid-19 period or before the Covid-19 pandemic starting from January 1, 2016 to March 8, 2020, the Covid-19 period starting from March 9, 2020 to March 10, 2023, and the overall period starting from January 1, 2016 to March 10, 2023 using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results showed that oil prices changed, hence stock indices had a statistically significant negative relationship during the Covid-19 period and the combined period. This research also shows that stock indices have a negative relationship in the combined period, a positive relationship before the Covid-19 pandemic, and a negative relationship during the Covid-19 pandemic to exchange rates. The results of this study also prove that stock indices act as a transmission channel between oil prices to exchange rates. The results of this study provide assistance to investors and traders of the stock market and forex to analyze stock price movements for better investment opportunities in the future. Furthermore, this study presents practical relevance for stock market investors that health uncertainty can be an insignificant relationship between oil prices and stock market indices which turned out to be a significant relationship during the pandemic period.

 

"

"Industri perminyakan di Indonesia sudah dimulai sejak tahun 1940-an oleh perusahaan Belanda. Ini bisa dilihat terdapatnya lapangan-lapangan minyak tua yang terdapat pada beberapa daerah di Indonesia. Setelah Indonesia merdeka lapangan-lapangan tersebut dinasionalisasikan oleh pemerintah.Saat ini bisnis perminyakan didominasi oleh perdagangan yang bertujuan untuk penyediaan Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) bagi kebutuhan nasional, maupun kepentingan ekspor bagi yang bertujuan mendapatkan devisa. Dalam melakukan ekspor BBM pendapatan akan sangat tergantung pada harga yang berlaku di pasar, sehingga terdapat risiko ketidakpastian pendapatan hasil ekspor.Hal ini merupakan suatu risiko pasar yang didefinisikan sebagai risiko yang mungkin timbul karena adanya pergerakan variabel pasar (adverse movement) dari ekspor yang dilakukan dan dapat menimbulkan kerugian terhadap perusahaan. Dalam penelitian ini komponen yang dijadikan obyek penelitian adalah risiko harga BBM.Pengukuran risiko pasar dapat dilakukan dengan mempergunakan standard approach atau internal model. Penerapan internal model diharuskan mempergunakan pendekatan Value at Risk (VaR). Dalam hal ini VaR dapat mengukur potensi kerugian maksimal yang mungkin terjadi dalam selang waktu tertentu dengan confidence level tertentu serta pada kondisi pasar yang normal.Pada penelitian yang dilakukan, digunakan pendekatan Riskmetrics dalam mengukur risiko harga dengan metode Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) sesuai dengan hasil pengujian data yang ada.Untuk mengetahui mengetahui karakteristik data return telah dilakukan pengujian data dengan Cara :? Stationerry Test dengan ADF test.? Uji normalitas data dengan Jarque Bera? White Heteroscedastic TestBerdasarkan uji data yang dilakukan, diperoleh bahwa metode yang tepat untuk melakukan forecasting volatilitas return harga tersebut adalah standar normal dan EWMA. Dan hasil perhitungan volatilitas tersebut maka dapat diukur VaR harian dengan tingkat keyakinan 95% dan 99% pada holding period satu hari.Langkah selanjutnya adalah dilakukan uji validasi model berdasarkan Kupiec Test dengan Total Number of Failure (TNoF) dan Time until First Failure (TUFF). Setelah dilakukan uji validasi pada model deviasi standar dan EWMA maka dapat disimpulkan hasil pengukuran dengan metode tersebut valid. Dapat diartikan bahwa nilai VaR yang dihasilkan dapat menangkap semua pergerakan actual loss selama penelitian.Berdasarkan pengamatan yang dilakukan selama periode penelitian telah diketahui kerugian maksimum pada ekspor yang dapat terjadi. Hal ini hares menjadi perhatian pihak manajemen perusahaan, karena hares segera diambil langkah-langkah untuk mengantisipasi kerugian yang mungkin terjadi.

---

Oil industry in Indonesia has begun since 1940's by the Dutch government. It was able to be seen with many old oil fields found at some areas in Indonesia. After Indonesia was free the fields were nationalized by the government.

Currently oil business is dominated by trading which having a goal to supply the Refined Fuel Oil (BBM) for national needs, or for export interest to obtain a foreign exchange. In doing export the BBM, the income will depend on prevailing price in the market, so it was found the income uncertainty risk of the result of export.

In this case the market risk is defined as the risk may arise because any adverse movement from export to be clone and can arise the loss for a company. In this research, we used the research of the price risk of the BBM.

Determination of the market risk can be done by using standard approach or internal model. Applying the internal model is required to use the Value at Risk approach (VaR). In this case VaR can determine the maximal loss potency maybe occurred in several time with certain confidence level and in normal market condition.

Research was carried out by using riskmetrics approach to determine the price risk with the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method in accordance with the result of existing examining of the data.

To know the characteristics of the data return has been carried out examining of the data in a way:

a. Stationery Test with ADF Test.

b. Data Normality Test with Jarque Bera

c. White Heteroscedastic Test

Based on the data test to be done, it was found that the appropriate method to carry out forecasting volatility return the price is normal standard and EWMA. Of the result of calculation of the volatility and it was able to be determined the daily VaR with certainty level 95% and 99% at holding period one day.

The next step is carried out validation test of model based on the Kupicc Test with Total Number of Failure (TNoF) and Time until First Failure (TUFF)_ After being carried out the validation test on standard deviation model and EWMA and can be concluded the result of calculation with the method is valid. It was able to be meant that VaR value which is obtained can handle all actual losses movement during the research.

Based on the observation to be done during the research it was known the maximum loss on export which can be occurred. In this case must be concern for company management, because it must immediately be taken the steps to anticipate the loss maybe occurred."

"Kenaikan harga BBM di awal Maret 2005 telah memicu kenaikan berbagai harga barang-barang kebutuhan pokok terutama yang banyak dikonsumsi oleh masyarakat. Dikhawatirkan kenaikan berbagai harga barang dan jasa akan menambah beban hidup masyarakat dan akan menambah jumlah penduduk miskin.Untuk mengurangi beban, hidup masyarakat maka pemerintah mengeluarkan Inpres No. 12 Tahun 2005 tentang dana kompensasi BBM yang berwujud dalam bentuk bantuan langsung tunai (BLT).Dalam penelitian ini tujuan yang ingin dicapai adalah sebagai berikut:1. Mengevaluasi bagaimana pelaksanaan penyaluran dana bantuan langsung tunai dan mendeskripsikan respon masyarakat.2. Mengevaluasi apakah dana bantuan langsung tunai yang disalurkan telah rnencukupi atau meringankan beban penduduk miskin.3. Mengidentifikasi apakah penyaluran dana bantuan langsung tunai dapat memberikan kontribusi terhadap peningkatan ketahanan wilayah.Sedangkan metodologi penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode penelitian deskriptif analitis dengan pendekatan kualitatif, yang meliputi pengumpulan data berupa observasi, wawancara, penelitian kepustakaan, Diskusi Kelompok Terarah. Penentuan responden menggunakan purposive sampling dan menggunakan analitis data kualitatif.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pembagian dana BLT belum sepenuhnya dijalankan sesuai dengan alur/prosedur yang diterapkan oleh BPS. Penyebabnya adalah beragamnya pengertian mengenai kemiskinan, hubungan kedekatan antara pencacah, ketua RW dan ketua RT dengan warga secara emosional ingin tetap menjaga hubungan baik dengan warga, sehingga dalam mendata terkadang tidak melihat tingkat kemiskinan warga. Respon yang muncul dari warga kekecewaan narnun dapat dimengerti oleh warga karena hubungan yang baik tersebut serta adanya solidaritas yang kuat dan persaudaraan yang telah lama terjalin sehingga antara warga yang mendapatkan dana bantuan langsung tunai dengan yang tidak mendapatkan telah terbiasa saling membantu.Warga yang mendapatkan dana bantuan Iangsung tunai biasanya digunakan untuk membeli kebutuhan pokok terutama konsumsi/ buat makan. Uang yang didapatkan sebesar Rp. 300.000 per tiga bulan hanya dihabiskan dalam jangka waktu dua minggu namun bagi warga uang tersebut sangat berarti dan sangat bermanfaat -dalam upaya memenuhi kebutuhan pokok keluarga serta dirasakan cukup meringankan beban hidup meskipun belum dapat melepaskan warga dari lingkaran kemiskinan.Penyaluran dana BLT didukung dengan lingkungan warga yang mempunyai solidaritas kuat, adanya kebersamaan, saling membantu, terus bekerja, kreatif mampu mengelola lingkungan menjadi peluang yang bisa dimanfaatkan untuk usaha. Ternyata telah memberikan kontribusi yang positif terhadap peningkatan ketahanan wilayah. Mampu menciptakan lingkungan yang aman dan kondusif tanpa ada gangguan dan ancaman terhadap masyarakat dan pemerintah.

---

The rise oil price at the beginning of March 2005 has triggered the rise in any consumable, mainly consumed by people. It is worried to increase ant goods and service price, consequently make public charge become heavier and will increase the amount of poor population.To decrease public charge, government issue Inpres No. 12, 2005 concerning oil compensation fund in the kind of cash direct help (BLT). This research, the purpose are follows:1. To evaluate how to distribution of cash direct done and description people respond it.2. Evaluate whether or not cash direct help distributed has been sufficient or soften life charge of poor people.3. Identify whether or not distribution of cash direct help can give contribution to the increasing of domestic tenacity.While methodological research used is analytical descriptive research method through qualitative approach, include collecting data like observation, interview, library research, Focus Group Discussion. The appointment of respondents use sampling purpose and qualitative data analysis.The result of this research indicates that allocation of BLT fund is not yet fully implemented in accordance with applied procedure by BPS. It is caused by any senses of poverty, closeness relation between census taker, head of RW and head of RT with people emotionally who want to always keep good relationship with people. Appeared response is disappointed, but it can be understood by people because that good relationship and strong solidarity and friendship has been built for a long time, so there is mutual help between people who receive help or not.People who have received cash direct help actually use their fund to buy their basic need, mainly for eating. The amount of money received is Rp. 300.000 per three months, but it spends only in two weeks, but that money is very significant for people and very useful in meeting their family need as well as to soften their life charge, although they can not yet disengage their own selves from poverty circle.Distribution of BLT fund is supported by strong solidarity, togetherness, mutual help, continuity to work, creativity to manage environment has become opportunity to be used as a business. In fact, this fund has given positive contribution to the increasing of domestic tenacity, can create save and conducive environment indicated from harmonious atmosphere and stability without disturbance and threat to public and government."

"Tesis ini membahas mengenai pengaruh goncangan harga minyak dunia terhadap Indikator Makroekonomi Indonesia. Fluktuasi harga minyak memiliki pcngaruh besar terhadap seluruh rangkaian proses produksi maupun aktivitas modem, sehingga kenaikan atau penurunan harga minyak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap selurnh kegiatan perekonomian dan kehidupan masyarakat dunia. Perubahan harga minyak di pasar dunia, baik kenaikan maupun penurunan dari waktu ke waktu dapat mempengaruhi perekonomian suatu negara, mengingat min yak merupakan salah satu kebutuhan pokok suatu negara, Shock yang terjadi pada tahun 1970 disebabkan oleh sisi supply. Sedangkan shock saat ini disebabkan oleh sisi supply, demand dan faktor-faktor lainnya, salah satunya disebabkan oleh spekulasi. Akibat dari faktor-faktor non fundamental ini maka pergerakan harga rninyak dunia semakin liar. Penelitian ini menggunakan dua spesifikasi, spesifikasi linier dan non linier. Spesifikasi non linier membedakan pergerakan harga minyak menjadi dua variabel yang berbeda, yaitu variabel kenaikan harga minyak dan variabel penurunan harga minyak. Pemisahan ini bertujuan agar lebih dapat melihat efek dari perubahan harga yang non linler terhadap variabel makroekonomi. Variabel makroekonomi yang dipakai adalah Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Inflasi dan Money Supply. Data yang digunakan dari tahun 1990:1-2008:3. Metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) yang diolah dengan software Eviews 5.1 Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa goncangan dari harga minyak dengan menggunakan spesifikasi linier hanya dapat menjelaskan kurang dari 1 persen pengaruhnya tcrhadap variabel-variabel ekonomi, sedangkan goncangan dari harga minyak dengan rnenggunakan spesifikasi non linier dapat menjelaskan lcbih dari 5 pcrsen pengaruhnya terhadap variabel-variabel ekonorni. Hasil selanjutnya juga menunjukkan bahwa goncangan pada saat terjadi penurunan harga minyak memberikan kontribusi yang lebih besar dalam menjelaskan variasi output dan variabel makroekonorni lainnya dibandingk:an dengan goncangan pada saat teajadi kenaikan harga rninyak kecuali untuk kasus nilai tukar riil dan suku bunga.

---

The focus on this study is about oil price shock effect on Indonesia macro economic indicators. Oil price fluctuation having large effect on all production process and modem activties, if oil price is rising or declining it will effect the whole economic activities and living of all people in the world. Oil price change, either rising or declining, can effect an economics condition of a country, because oil is one of country basic need. In 1970, oil price shock was caused by supply side. But nowadays the shock is caused by supply and demand side and also the other factors, such as oil speculation. The effect of this non fundamental factors is making the moving of oil price become unpredictable. The research is using two spesification: linear spesification and non-linear spesification. The non-linear spesification differentiate the moving of oil price into two different variable, oil price rising variabel and oil price declining variable. The separation have one purpose, the effect from non-linear oil price change to macro economic variable can be seen more clearly. Macro economic variable that is used in this study are gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation and money supply. The period of this study from 1990:1 to 2008:3. This study is using vector error correction model method, and using Eviews 5.1 as the software. The estimation result show the oil price shock using linear spesification only explain less than one percent the effecr to economic variables. On the other hand, oil price shock with non linear spesification can explain more than five percents the effect to economic variables. The next result show the declining oil price shock ls giving more contributions in explaining output variation and other macro economic variables compare to raising oil price shock, except for real exchange rate and interest rate."

"Lonjakan harga minyak yang sangat tinggi menjadi perhatian negaranegara di dunia, baik negara produsen minyak maupun negara konsumen. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara dinamika harga minyak mentah dengan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK), defisit anggaran (BD), dan neraca transaksi berjalan (CA). Periode data yang digunakan adalah 2000Q1-2014Q3 dengan metode VECM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara ketiga jenis harga minyak (WTI, Brent, dan ICP) dengan IHK, BD, dan CA. Sementara dari hasil uji IRF bahwa shock ketiga jenis harga minyak memberikan respon positif pada IHK namun memberikan respon negatif pada BD dan CA.

---

The spike of oil prices becomes a big concern to all countries in the world, both for oil-producing countries and oil-consumer countries. This study analyzed the relationship between the dynamics of crude oil prices with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Budget Deficit (BD), and the Current Account (CA). The period of data used was 2000Q1-2014Q3 with VECM method. The results showed that there are a cointegration between the three types of oil prices (WTI, Brent, and ICP) with the CPI, BD, and CA. While the IRF test results that shock the three types of oil prices gave a positive response to the CPI but a negative response in BD and CA."

"The endogeneity of Oil Price Shocks and Their Effect of Indonesia : A structural Vector Autoregression Model. In the paper the endogeneity of oil price shocks as well as the effects of different type of the shocks on the Indonesian economy represented by its gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and real effective exchage rate (REER) were investigated. A structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was constructed extending Killian (2009) model by employing several lags constrains in the model as Indonesia is a small open economy. There was evidence that oil proce shocks were endogenously formed by oil-spesific-demand itself, aggregate global demand and fraction of oil stock. The exports' effect convincingly existed in the oil price shocks influencing the economy of Indonesia. In addition, there was no evidence that Indonesia enjoyed benefits from being an OPEC member. "

"ABSTRAKUntuk mencapai target penerimaan negara tiap-tiap Kontraktor Kontrak KerjaSama (KKKS) minyak dan gas bumi diberikan suatu target produksi sebagaipenilaian kinerja perusahaan oleh SKK Migas. Untuk perusahaan pengelola blokmigas yang memiliki lapangan-lapangan produksi tua memiliki kendala-kendalauntuk mencapai target tersebut salah satunya adalah adanya permasalahan crossflow pada reservoir sumur. Dengan menggunakan flow optimizer kontraktor dapatmengatasi permasalahan tersebut. Namun perlu dilihat secara keekonomianapakah tambahan produksi tersebut dapat mencapai expected return yangdipersyaratkan oleh perusahaan. Dengan menggunakan cost benefit analysis dapatdihitung tingkat pengembalian yang dihasilkan karena adanya treatment yangdilakukan perusahaan. Kemudian hasil perhitungan cost benefit analysis tersebutdilakukan perhitungan real option analysis untuk memperhitungkan adanyaopportunity yang diperoleh dari opsi karena adanya ketidakpastian dari hargaminyak dan keputusan-keputusan strategis yang dapat diambil oleh manajemen.Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diketahui bahwa proyek tersebut memberikanimbal hasil yang positif sebesar 36.36% namun belum mencapai tingkat imbalhasil yang diharapkan oleh perusahaan sebesar 58.08%.

---

ABSTRACTTo achieve target revenue each of oil and gas Production Sharing Contractors(KKKS) is given production target as the corporate performance evaluation bySKK Migas. For companies managing oil and gas blocks that have the oldproduction fields have several problems to achieving these targets, one of which isthe problems with cross flow on the reservoir wells. By using flow optimizercontractor can resolve these problems. However, it should be evaluate whetheradditional production can achieve the expected return required by the company.By using cost benefit analysis, the company can calculated the return generatedfrom treatment performed by them self. The calculation results of the cost benefitanalysis will be used to calculate the real option analysis to calculate theopportunity generated from the option due to the uncertainty of oil prices and thestrategic decisions which can be taken by the management. Based on calculationsit is known that the project generate positive return amounting 36.36% but has notachieved the expected return that was set by the company amounting 58.08%."

"AbstractThis paper attempts to examine the impact of rising fossil fuel prices on the increasing impact on the demand of alternative fuels (biofuels), and its impact on food availability in Indonesia. An econometric model using simultaneous equations is employed. An increase in world crude oil price for 0,192 percent caused the price of real Indonesian palm oil export raised by 10,64 percent. Consequently, a larger biodiesel production is needed to meet their crease of world's consumer demand for biodiesel. Also, with the increase in real export price of Indonesian palm oil, it will encourage palm oil producers to push their export volume. Indonesian palm oil exporter expected to increase by 6,37 percent to finally push the domestic CPO price increase for 1,85 percent. Rising domestic oil prices are causing oil demand in the palm oil industry to decline by 0,49 percent and in the end resulting in the decline of palm oil production by 1,56 percent."