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"AbstrakThe purpose of this study is to examine and analyse the effect of local governments ability on the relationship between budget turbulence and budget deviation. The study sample uses the regional budget (APBD) report and realization of a number of districts/cities throughout Indonesia encompassing the 2014 until 2017 period, while the analysis covers the period from 2015 until 2017. This study uses the least square approach with EViews analysis tool version 10 to test the hypothesis. Result of the study shows that budget turbulence has a positive and significant effect on budget deviation. The result also shows that the capacity of local governments can reduce the influence of budget turbulence on the budget deviation. Sensitivity tests using proxies of local governments not sampled by the main test also show consistent results. Finally, sensitivity test by area category proves that for the three categories, mainly western, central, and eastern Indonesia, the results are consistent with the main test results. The contribution of this study to the policies of the local governments is aimed to enhance efficiency of spending and increase productive spending to support the priority of government programs and encourage efficient, innovative and sustainable financing while maintaining the investment climate. Through several of these alternatives, the local government can overcome the conditions of resource instability that can threaten the effectiveness of the implementation of various programs."

"The lack of accounting literature that links budget supervision or control with budget realization allows the author to conduct this study. In addition, the main issue of this study is the failure of the local government in planning, implementing and being responsible for the budget resulting in bud-get surpluses and deficits. Surplus and deficit prove the existence of the budget deviations. The cause of the budget deviation is a mistake in the budget forecast. Some cases of budget deficits in Indonesia prove this. Budget forecast errors have the potential to increase budget deviation due to the role of the financial capability index. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of financial capability index in influencing the relationship of budget forecast errors and budget deviation. The sample used local government in Indonesia between 2016 and 2018 through a purposive sampling technique. Analytical tools use STATA Version 15.1. The results of the study prove that budget fore-cast errors have a positive and significant effect on budget deviation, and the financial capability index has a positive effect on the relationship between budget forecast errors and budget deviation. Sensitivity testing and additional testing reinforced the initial testing of this study."

"This study aims to examine the effect of budget forecast errors on budget deviations moderated by local governments’ overconfidence. The research sample used regency/city governments in Indonesia during the 2017-2019 period. The analysis tool uses Eviews version 10 and SPSS version 22. The results showed that budget forecast errors had a positive and significant effect on budget deviation, but the local government’s overconfidence cannot cause an effect of budget forecast errors on the budget deviation. Additional test results of this study also showed that regency/city governments who were overconfident tend to fail in controlling their budget which could cause a surplus or deficit compared to local governments that were not overconfident. The same conditions apply to budget forecast errors. This means that regency/city governments that are overconfident tend to estimate budgets that are too high for revenue and/or budget estimates that are too low for expenditure compared to local governments that are not overconfident. Consistent with the main test results, this study shows that budget forecast errors have a significant effect on budget deviation and tend to occur in the Central Indonesian region category. Furthermore, overconfident regency/city governments cannot moderate the effect of budget forecast errors on budget deviations. Finally, these findings indicate that there is no difference between the budget forecast errors and the budget deviation in the three categories of western, central, and eastern Indonesia."