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"[ABSTRAKIndonesia merupakan salah satu produsen terbesar komoditas kakao biji di dunia.Hal ini menandakan bahwa kakao biji merupakan salah satu komoditas terpentingbagi Indonesia. Karenanya, pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilitas produksi darikomoditas terserbut. Selanjutnya, peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji ditandaidengan besarnya share ekspor dari komoditas tersebut terhadap total ekspor sektorpertanian Indonesia dan juga peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji terhadapmata pencaharian utama petani kecil di pedesaan.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji determinan dari produksi komoditas kakaobiji Indonesia. Secara lebih khusus, penelitian ini mendiskusikan bagaimanafaktor-faktor agronomis, karakteristik petani, dan proses rantai nilai dapatmempengaruhi produksi kakao biji di Indonesia yang dijelaskan melalui metodekualitatif. Selain itu, penilitian ini juga menguji bagaimana pengaruh dari hargaprodusen dan perubahannya, harga dunia, curah hujan, dan inflasi terhadapproduksi komoditas kakao biji Indonesia dengan menggunakan model randomeffect.Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor agronomis dapatmempengaruhi produksi kakao biji melalui tingkat curah hujan dan tingkatkelembaban yang memngaruhi pohon kakao. Selanjutnya, karakteristik petani,seperti motif untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehar-hari, dapat memengaruhikeputusan petani dalam membudidayakan komoditas kakao biji. Proses rantai nilaimenjelaskan bahwa harga produsen secara langsung mempengaruhi kapasitasproduksi domestic, sedangkan harga internasional secara tidak langsungmempengaruhi kapasitas produksi. Sementara itu, model random effectmenunjukkan bahwa harga produsen, perubahan harga produsen, harga dunia, daninflasi secara signifikan memberikan pengaruh terhadap produksi kakao bijidomestik.

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ABSTRACTCurrently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in theworld. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities forIndonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities forIndonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoabean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share ofcocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood ofsmallholder farmers.This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa beanproduction. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors,farmers? characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa beanproduction in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors.Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change inproducer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production.Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables.The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through theimpact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers? characteristics, i.e. themotive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. Thevalue chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directlyaffect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects thedomestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change inprice of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflationsignificantly affect the domestic production.;Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in theworld. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities forIndonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities forIndonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoabean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share ofcocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood ofsmallholder farmers.This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa beanproduction. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors,farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa beanproduction in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors.Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change inproducer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production.Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables.The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through theimpact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. themotive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. Thevalue chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directlyaffect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects thedomestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change inprice of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflationsignificantly affect the domestic production., Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in theworld. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities forIndonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities forIndonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoabean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share ofcocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood ofsmallholder farmers.This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa beanproduction. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors,farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa beanproduction in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors.Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change inproducer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production.Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables.The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through theimpact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. themotive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. Thevalue chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directlyaffect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects thedomestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change inprice of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflationsignificantly affect the domestic production.]"

"Karena pengukuran produktivitas yang akurat dapat memberikan informasi yang berguna dalam meningkatkan daya saing, penting untuk memahami perbedaan dalam produktivitas relatif di antara negara-negara. Hal ini memungkinkan negara untuk fokus dan berspesialisasi dalam produk-produk mereka yang relatif lebih produktif. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan berbasis regresi, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola dasar keunggulan komparatif, dengan industri baja Indonesia sebagai fokus analisis. Temuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah bahwa Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif terkuat di industri baja di antara negara-negara ASEAN. Meskipun industri baja adalah industri ke-27 dalam peringkat nilai keunggulan komparatif dalam negeri Indonesia, ada beberapa produk yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang kuat dan bahkan memiliki posisi yang kuat secara internasional. Selain itu, penting untuk mengikutsertakan beberapa negara ASEAN sebagai observasi dalam mengestimasi parameter kunci produktivitas karena menghasilkan estimasi baru θ, yang masih sejalan dengan literatur yang ada.

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Because accurate productivity measurements can provide useful information in enhancing competitiveness, it is important to understand the differences in the relative productivity among countries, allowing countries to focus and specialize in their relatively more productive products. Using a regression-based approach, this study aims to analyze the fundamental patterns of comparative advantage, with the Indonesian steel industry as the focus of analysis.

The major finding of this research is that Indonesia has the strongest comparative advantage in the steel industry among ASEAN countries. Even though the steel industry is the 27th industry in Indonesia’s within-country ranking of comparative advantage values, there are some products that have a strong comparative advantage and even have a strong position internationally. In addition, it is worth pointing out that taking some ASEAN countries in the observation in estimating the key parameter of productivity, while not the main focus of the paper, yields a new estimate of θ, which is still in line with the extant literature."

"Makalah ini berusaha untuk mengkaji dampak berbeda dari transaksi merger dan akuisisi (M&A) terhadap kinerja keuangan perusahaan yang mengakuisisi di berbagai kondisi pasar. Makalah ini mencakup tinjauan literatur yang meliputi teori kesepakatan M&A, motif, dan temuan empiris sebelumnya terkait kinerja perusahaan setelah transaksi M&A. Data yang digunakan terdiri dari 162 transaksi merger dan akuisisi yang telah selesai dalam periode 2012 hingga 2021 dari perusahaan yang terdaftar di pasar negara berkembang (India, Malaysia, dan Taiwan) serta negara maju (Belgia, Belanda, Luksemburg (Benelux), Jerman, dan Inggris). Kinerja keuangan diukur menggunakan return on asset (ROA), return on equity (ROE), dan earnings per share (EPS). Data dianalisis menggunakan metode statistik deskriptif, uji normalitas, dan uji hipotesis dengan Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa transaksi M&A memberikan dampak kinerja keuangan yang serupa pada perusahaan di pasar negara berkembang dan negara maju. Terdapat efek positif yang signifikan secara keseluruhan terhadap ROA dan ROE perusahaan yang mengakuisisi pasca-transaksi M&A. Namun, EPS dari perusahaan yang mengakuisisi menurun setelah transaksi M&A.

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This paper tries to examine the differential impact of merger and acquisitions (M&A) transactions on acquiring firms' financial performance across different market conditions. It includes literature review that encompasses M&A deals theory, motive, and prior empirical findings on a firm's performance after an M&A transaction. Using data of 162 completed merger and acquisitions transactions in the period 2012 to 2021 from listed companies in emerging markets (India, Malaysia, and Taiwan) and developed countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg (Benelux), Germany, and the United Kingdom). Financial performance is measured using return on asset (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and earnings per share (EPS). The data were analyzed by the following statistical methods: descriptive statistics, normality test, and hypothesis test using Wilcoxon signed-rank test. This study presents evidence that M&A transactions lead to a similar financial performance impact on a firm's in emerging markets and developed countries. There is an overall significant positive effect found for acquirer firms’ ROA and ROE post-M&A deals. Whereas, EPS of acquiring firms deteriorated after M&A transactions."

"Laporan ini merupakan gabungan dari tiga penelitian yang berkelanjutan mengenai metode peramalan inflasi di Australia, yang dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrika runtun waktu. Penelitian pertama menggunakan model ARIMA untuk meramalkan inflasi Indeks Harga Konsumen (CPI) di Australia untuk periode 2023Q1 hingga 2024Q4. Penelitian kedua mengeksplorasi dampak dinamis tingkat pengangguran dan suku bunga terhadap inflasi, menggunakan model ARDL dan fungsi respon impuls (IRF). Penelitian ketiga membandingkan model ARIMA dan V AR untuk peramalan inflasi, menilai keakuratan prediksi melalui data observasi. Hasil dari laporan ini menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA efektif dalam peramalan jangka pendek, sementara model V AR menunjukkan stabilitas yang lebih baik dalam prediksi jangka panjang. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan penting bagi pembuat kebijakan untuk memahami dinamika variabel-variabel makroekonomi dan dampaknya terhadap tingkat inflasi dan kondisi perekonomian.

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This report is a combination of three consecutive research studies on inflation forecasting methods in Australia, analyzed using a time series econometrics approach. The first study utilizes the ARIMA model to forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Australia for the period 2023Q1 to 2024Q4. The second study explores the dynamic impacts of unemployment rates and cash rates on inflation, employing ARDL models and impulse response functions (IRFs). The third study compares ARIMA and V AR models for inflation forecasting, evaluating predictive accuracy through observed data. The results indicate that ARIMA models are effective for short-term forecasting, while V AR models exhibit greater stability in long-term predictions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to understand the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and their impacts on inflation and the economy condition."