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"This is a thorough exploration of the models and methods of financial econometrics by one of the world's leading financial econometricians and is for students in economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and engineering who are interested in financial applications. Based on courses taught around the world, the up-to-date content covers developments in econometrics and finance over the last twenty years while ensuring a solid grounding in the fundamental principles of the field. Care has been taken to link theory and application to provide real-world context for students, worked exercises and empirical examples have also been included to make sure complicated concepts are solidly explained and understood."

"Abstrak Berbahasa Indonesia/Berbahasa Lain (Selain Bahasa Inggris): Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevalusi metode audit PKKN oleh BPKP. Metode penelitian ini bersifat penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus di BPKP. Data primer yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa hasil wawancara kepada auditor BPKP yang pernah melaksanakan audit PKKN dan menjadi ahli di pengadilan. Data sekunder yang digunakan berupa salinan putusan pengadilan atas kasus tindak pidana korupsi yang telah inkcraht yang diunduh dari laman resmi Mahkamah Agung. Pelaksanaan audit PKKN oleh BPKP dievaluasi dengan fraud theory approach, konsep REAL Tree dan peraturan perundang-undangan. Pemberian keterangan ahli di pengadilan akan dievaluasi dengan daubert test. Hasil penelitian ini yaitu audit PKKN oleh BPKP tidak sesuai dengan fraud theory approach karena tidak membuat dan menguji hipotesis. Terdapat metode PKKN yang berbeda dengan konsep REAL Tree karena auditor BPKP menerapkan kriteria kerugian keuangan negara yang nyata dan pasti (actual loss) dan tidak memperhitungkan bunga efektif sebagai konsep time value of money. Pemberian keterangan ahli oleh auditor BPKP tidak sesuai dengan daubert test karena BPKP tidak mewajibkan monitoring dan evaluasi atas putusan pengadilan serta tidak melaksanakan peer review atas metode PKKN. Implikasi penelitian ini yaitu BPKP memitigasi risiko judgement biases dengan menerapkan frameworks atas professional judgement auditor, menyusun standar umum yang mengatur prinsip-prinsip dasar dalam audit PKKN, melaksanakan program monitoring dan evaluasi atas putusan pengadilan secara periodik, dan melaksanakan peer review metode Abstrak Berbahasa Inggris: This research aimed to evaluate the PKKN audit method by the Finance and Development Supervisory Agency (BPKP). This research utilizes the qualitative method and uses BPKP as a case study. Primary data in this research is collected from BPKP's auditor who had performed a PKKN audit and was presented as an expert witness in court. Furthermore, verdict copies from Supreme Court (MA) for inkracht corruption infringement cases were used as secondary data. PKKN audit execution by BPKP is evaluated using the fraud theory approach, the REAL tree concept, and statutory regulations. Additionally, expert witness testimony in court is evaluated using the daubert test. This research found that PKKN audits by BPKP don't conform to the fraud theory approach due to the lack of hypothesis creation and evaluation. Some PKKN's methods differ from the REAL tree concept because the BPKP’s auditor uses certain and actual losses as criteria and doesn't calculate effective interest from the time value of money concept. Expert witness testimony in court by BPKP’s auditor also didn't conform to the daubert test because BPKP didn't mandate monitoring and evaluation for court verdict, nor well as didn't perform any peer review for the PKKN method. The implication of this research is that BPKP mitigates the risk of judgment bias by implementing frameworks for auditors' professional judgment, developing general standards that regulate the basic principles in PKKN audits, implementing periodic monitoring and evaluation programs for court decisions, and carrying out peer reviews of PKKN methods externally."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevalusi metode audit PKKN oleh BPKP. Metode penelitian ini bersifat penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus di BPKP. Data primer yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa hasil wawancara kepada auditor BPKP yang pernah melaksanakan audit PKKN dan menjadi ahli di pengadilan. Data sekunder yang digunakan berupa salinan putusan pengadilan atas kasus tindak pidana korupsi yang telah inkcraht yang diunduh dari laman resmi Mahkamah Agung. Pelaksanaan audit PKKN oleh BPKP dievaluasi dengan fraud theory approach, konsep REAL Tree dan peraturan perundang-undangan. Pemberian keterangan ahli di pengadilan akan dievaluasi dengan daubert test. Hasil penelitian ini yaitu audit PKKN oleh BPKP tidak sesuai dengan fraud theory approach karena tidak membuat dan menguji hipotesis. Terdapat metode PKKN yang berbeda dengan konsep REAL Tree karena auditor BPKP menerapkan kriteria kerugian keuangan negara yang nyata dan pasti (actual loss) dan tidak memperhitungkan bunga efektif sebagai konsep time value of money. Pemberian keterangan ahli oleh auditor BPKP tidak sesuai dengan daubert test karena BPKP tidak mewajibkan monitoring dan evaluasi atas putusan pengadilan serta tidak melaksanakan peer review atas metode PKKN. Implikasi penelitian ini yaitu BPKP memitigasi risiko judgement biases dengan menerapkan frameworks atas professional judgement auditor, menyusun standar umum yang mengatur prinsipprinsip dasar dalam audit PKKN, melaksanakan program monitoring dan evaluasi atas putusan pengadilan secara periodik, dan melaksanakan peer review metode PKKN secara eksternal.

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This research aimed to evaluate the PKKN audit method by the Finance and Development Supervisory Agency (BPKP). This research utilizes the qualitative method and uses BPKP as a case study. Primary data in this research is collected from BPKP's auditor who had performed a PKKN audit and was presented as an expert witness in court. Furthermore, verdict copies from Supreme Court (MA) for inkracht corruption infringement cases were used as secondary data. PKKN audit execution by BPKP is evaluated using the fraud theory approach, the REAL tree concept, and statutory regulations. Additionally, expert witness testimony in court is evaluated using the daubert test. This research found that PKKN audits by BPKP don't conform to the fraud theory approach due to the lack of hypothesis creation and evaluation. Some PKKN's methods differ from the REAL tree concept because the BPKP’s auditor uses certain and actual losses as criteria and doesn't calculate effective interest from the time value of money concept. Expert witness testimony in court by BPKP’s auditor also didn't conform to the daubert test because BPKP didn't mandate monitoring and evaluation for court verdict, nor well as didn't perform any peer review for the PKKN method. The implication of this research is that BPKP mitigates the risk of judgment bias by implementing frameworks for auditors' professional judgment, developing general standards that regulate the basic principles in PKKN audits, implementing periodic monitoring and evaluation programs for court decisions, and carrying out peer reviews of PKKN methods externally."

"Masa pandemi COVID-19 yang berawal pada bulan Maret 2020 ini sudah banyak membuat tekanan di masyarakat, khususnya tekanan ekonomi. Berbagai peraturan ditetapkan, dalam rangka menekan angka penyebarannya, sehingga membuat banyak aktivitas terganggu, karena masyarakat dituntut untuk melakukan aktivitasnya dari rumah saja yang membuat aktivitas usaha tidak dapat dijalankan secara maksimal. Dalam usahanya beradaptasi, tidak jarang perusahaan gagal mencapai tujuannya dan menimbulkan kerugian operasional pada tahun berjalan. Kerugian yang dialami tidak jarang membawa perusahaan pada kebangkrutan. Namun data mencatatkan sebaliknya. Pada kuartal III tahun 2021, BPS mencatat pertumbuhan industri manufaktur sebesar 3,68 persen, peningkatan yang cukup baik di tengah banyaknya kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia. Penelitian ini ingin membuktikan apakah sektor manufaktur menunjukkan geliat positif selama pandemi dengan menggunakan metode Springate dan Altman. Perhitungan kondisi keuangan yang dilakukan pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di BEI tahun 2016-2020 menunjukkan bahwa metode Springate mengelompokkan 282 observasi ke dalam kategori sehat dan 283 lainnya masuk ke dalam kategori distress. Sedangkan metode Altman mengelompokkan 235 observasi masuk kategori sehat, 136 observasi masuk kategori gray zone, dan 194 lainnya masuk kategori distress. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa metode Springate memiliki tingkat konsistensi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan metode Altman

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The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in March 2020, has created a lot of pressure on the community, especially economic pressure. Various regulations were enacted, in order to reduce the number of spreads, thus disrupting many activities, because people were required to carry out their activities from home which made business activities unable to run optimally. In its efforts to adapt, it is not uncommon for companies to fail to achieve their goals and incur operational losses in the current year. Losses experienced not infrequently bring the company to bankruptcy. However, the data says otherwise. In the third quarter of 2021, BPS recorded a manufacturing industry growth of 3.68 percent, a fairly good increase in the midst of the large number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. This study wants to prove whether the manufacturing sector shows a positive stretch during the pandemic by using the Springate and Altman methods. Calculations of financial conditions carried out on manufacturing companies listed on the IDX in 2016-2020 show that the Springate method groups 282 observations into the healthy category and another 283 into the distress category. While the Altman method groups 235 observations into the healthy category, 136 observations in the gray zone category, and 194 others into the distress category. The results also show that the Springate method has a higher level of consistency than the Altman method."

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Fluktuasi harga batubara yang sangat tinggi telah membuat ketidakpastian tentang keberlanjutan bisnis, terutama perusahaan di sektor pertambangan batubara. Dari kondisi tidak stabilnya harga batubara Indonesia dapat memberikan dampak negative kepada perusahaan yang pada akhirnya perusahaan masuk kedalam kondisi kesulitan keuangan bahkan kebangkrutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis prediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia periode tahun 2014 hingga tahun 2018. Perhitungan dilakukan menggunakan empat model prediksi lalu dibandingkan dengan analisa kredit menggunakan analisa trend. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan dari 15 perusahaan sampel yang berada pada sector pertambangan batubara, empat diantaranya masuk kedalam zona kesulitan keuangan (financial distress).

 

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Fluctuations in coal prices are very high has created uncertainty about business sustainability, especially companies in the coal mining sector. From the unstable condition of Indonesian coal prices can have a negative impact on the company, which in the end the company entered into a condition of financial difficulties and even bankruptcy. This study aims to analyze the bankruptcy predictions of coal mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2014 to 2018. Calculations were performed using four prediction models and compared with credit analysis using trend analysis. The results of this study indicate that of the 15 sample companies in the coal mining sector, four of them entered the zone of financial distress.

 

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