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"This paper reviews some major works of Thee Kian Wie, one of Indonesia?s most distinguished economic historians, that spans from the Colonial period until the post-New Order period. His works emphasize that economic history can guide future economic policy. Current problems in Indonesia were resulted from past policy failures. Indonesia needs to consistently embark on open economic policies, free itself from "colonial period mentality". Investment should be made in rebuilding crumbling infrastructure, improving the quality of health and education services, and addressing poor law enforcement. If current corruption persists, Indonesia could not hope to become a dynamic and prosperous country."

"Despite Indonesia?s impressive economic growth, it still lags behind other countries with a similar income level in terms of the quality of its human capital. This paper argues that one key factor explaining this low quality of human capital relates to the lack of focus and clear strategies to develop its education system. This paper attempts to assess Indonesia?s current state of human capital development with particular focus on its education sector. In order to benefit from its demographic bonus, Indonesia needs to to improve its current education and skill training system. Better education and skill training system will support the country?s effort to reduce poverty and youth unemployment. The effectiveness of public spending in education should be improved to raise the quality of education. Indonesia needs to integrate its human capital development plan with its economic master plan.Keywords: Human Capital; Poverty; Unemployment; Education; DevelopmentAbstrakMeskipun mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mengagumkan, kualitas sumber daya manusia Indonesia masih tertinggal dibandingkan negara lain dengan tingkat penghasilan setara. Tulisan ini berpendapat bahwa faktor kunci yang menjelaskan rendahnya kualitas sumber daya manusia berhubungan dengan ketiadaan strategi yang terfokus dan jelas untuk mengembangkan sistem pendidikan Indonesia. Tulisan ini menilai kondisi kekinian dari pengembangan sumber daya manusia Indonesia dengan fokus khusus pada sektor pendidikan. Agar dapat mengoptimalkan manfaat dari bonus demografi, Indonesia perlu membenahi sistem pendidikan dan pelatihan keterampilan. Sistem pendidikan dan pelatihan keterampilan yang lebih baik akan menunjang upaya pengentasan kemiskinan dan pengurangan pengangguran muda. Efektivitas pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor pendidikan perlu ditingkatkan guna meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan. Indonesia perlu mengintegrasikan rencana pembangunan sumber daya manusia dengan master plan perekonomian."

"Oil exploration has been subject to economic research for decades. Earlier studies of exploration models are mostly discussed the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such as field, firm, region, and continental. This paper then focuses on the geological and economic factors that determine the well-drilling decision at the micro-level using disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period of 2004?2013. This study shows that the number of drilled wells is determined significantly by the lag of success rate, lag of discovery size, lag of global oil price, and regional location of geological basin.AbstrakEksplorasi migas telah menjadi subyek ekonomi dalam beberapa dekade. Studi-studi sebelumnya dengan model eksplorasi, kebanyakan mengembangkan model Fisher (1964), secara umum dikelompokkan oleh persamaan yang menjelaskan respons eksplorasi pada tingkat makro menggunakan lapangan, perusahaan, wilayah, dan kontinental. Paper ini fokus pada analisis faktor-faktor geologi dan ekonomi yang menentukan tingkat sumur pemboran pada tingkat mikro menggunakan data panel dari 32 basin di Indonesia dalam periode 2004?2013. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa tingkat sumur pemboran ditentukan secara signifikan berdasarkan tingkat keberhasilan pemboran, ukuran temuan dan harga minyak pada tahun sebelumnya serta lokasi basin geologis."

"The Belgian Congo (Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), the Netherlands Indies (Indonesia), and Taiwan/Formosa (now the Republic of China) experienced policies during the 19th and early 20th century which could be termed exploitative or extractive, although some policies in these colonies could also be termed developmental. All three colonies had a troubled passage to independence, and the immediate post-independence era was marked by considerable political and economic turmoil. But the growth performance of the three former colonies has been very different. Taiwan has seen very rapid growth sustained over decades; Indonesia's economic growth since 1970 has been quite robust; the Congo has seen a growth collapse which is extraordinary even by African standards. The paper suggests some explanations for this divergence in terms of policies pursued by the Japanese, Dutch and Belgian colonial regimes, and by postindependence governments in these countries."

"This text had twoeditions, several reprints, and translations in other languages. However, the differentpace of the revisions of the two volumes suggested to make them self-contained andindependent from each other. The volume covering trade was published in 1998(second edition 2014) under the title International Trade Theory and Policy. Thisis the second edition of the volume covering international finance (the first editionwas published in 2001). This new edition contains a wealth of additional materialthat has been introduced thanks to the suggestions of colleagues and students and tothe comments contained in book reviews. All has been thoroughly classroom testedin both undergraduate and graduate courses in various universities in Italy and other countries."

"AbstractThis study observes the speculative element in the price determination and its mean reverting pattern. The existence of speculative element in the Indonesian stock market price determination was proven. Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) method indicates the non-stationary process of the residuals. There are systematic as well as unsystematic component embedded in the speculative behavior. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) concludes that prices contain volatilities in the short run, but, it will revert to the mean in the long run. Investors? behavior are neutral toward expected gain vis a vis losses in a stock trading ."

"This paper aims to assess the role of middle class in Indonesia?s democracy, with the particular focus of the last Indonesian Presidential election. This study uses econometric analyses to assess preferences of middle class in presidential election by exploring data at district/city and provincial. The main finding in this study strongly suggests that religious and personality are still important elements under the race of Indonesia president. This study also found that different group of middle class has different attitudes in selecting the presidential candidate and the upper group of middle class is more likely to select Joko Widodo. Finally, a fragile middle class and a relatively high number of abstainers could be a barrier toward more substantive democracy.AbstrakMakalah ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran kelompok kelas menengah dalam proses demokrasi di Indonesia, secara khusus peran mereka difokuskan pada hasil pemilihan presiden yang terakhir. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrik untuk mengalisis preferensi kelompok kelas menengah dalam memilih calon presiden, dengan melakukan eksplorasi data pada tingkat kabupaten/kota dan provinsi. Hasil studi menunjukkan, agama dan personalitas calon presiden menjadi faktor penting dalam pertarungan pemilihan presiden. Studi ini juga menunjukkan, berbagai kelompok dalam kelas menengah memiliki preferensi yang berbeda dalam memilih kandidat presiden dan kelompok kelas menengah atas cenderung memilih Joko Widodo. Akhirnya, kelas menengah yang rentan dan tingginya kelompok yang abstain, akan menjadi hambatan untuk menuju demokrasi yang lebih substantif."

"This paper considers the nature of assessing productivity and effectiveness in infrastructure investment in the context of governments? increasing investment in new infrastructure. Taking the case of energy infrastructure investment within Indonesia, this paper makes three contributions: (i) develops a model for assessing infrastructure productivity based on landscape, regime and niche-level changes, (ii) suggests the interconnection between these levels based on sequencing multi-level changes over time, and (iii) shows the role of supply and demand side initiatives in enabling new infrastructure investment is evaluated. AbstrakArtikel ini mempertimbangkan sifat dari penilaian produktivitas dan efektivitas pada investasi infrastruktur dalam rangka peningkatan investasi pemerintah pada infrastruktur baru. Dengan menggunakan kasus investasi infrastruktur energi di Indonesia, artikel ini menghasilkan tiga hal: (i) nembangun model untuk menilai produktivitas infrastruktur berdasarkan perubahan dari lanskap, rezim, dan perubahan di level yang tepat, (ii) menunjukkan interkoneksi antar level-level tersebut berdasarkan perubahan multi-level yang berurutan dari waktu ke waktu, dan (iii) menunjukkan peran dari inisiatif sisi penawaran dan permintaan yang memungkinkan investasi infrastruktur baru untuk dievaluasi."

"This study revisits the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among BRIC stock market, with the particular attention to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Extending related empirical studies, comparative analyses of pre-crisis, and post-crisis periods were conducted to comprehensively evaluate how stock market integration was affected by financial crises. In general, after employing cointegration test and VAR test, the results reveal the increase of stock market integration in BRICs after the subprime crisis. The evidence also found that China stock market is the most influential among the BRICs, in which China stock market has the ability to Granger cause the other three BRICs member countries. An important implication of our findings is that the degree of integration among countries tends to change over time, especially around periods marked by financial crises. AbstrakPenelitian ini mengkaji ulang hubungan jangka panjang dan hubungan kausal dinamis jangka pendek antara pasar modal negara-negara BRIC, terutama pada saat krisis subprime mortgage 2008. Pengayaan studi empiris yang terkait dan analisa perbandingan sebelum-sesudah krisis dilakukan untuk mengevaluasi secara komprehensif tentang bagaimana krisis keuangan memengaruhi integrasi pasar modal. Secara umum, setelah menggunakan uji kointegrasi dan uji VAR, hasil penelitian ini memperlihatkan peningkatan integrasi pasar modal di negara-negara BRIC setelah terjadinya krisis subprime. Penelitian ini juga membuktikan bahwa pasar modal Cina adalah pasar yang paling berpengaruh di antara negara BRIC, di mana pasar modal Cina memiliki kemampuan untuk memengaruhi secara Granger Causality tiga negara anggota BRIC lainnya. Implikasi penting dari temuan kami adalah bahwa tingkat integrasi antara negara-negara cenderung berubah dari waktu ke waktu, terutama sekitar periode yang ditandai oleh krisis keuangan."

"ABSTRAKSkripsi ini bertujuan untuk Menganalisis dan mengetahui tingkat risiko sistemik sektor perbankan di Indonesia serta Mengetahui keterkaitan antar bank di Indonesia yang berpengaruh terhadap risiko sistemik. Penelitian dilakukan terhadap 16 bank yang sahamnya aktif diperdagangkan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Metodologi penelitian menggunakan pengujian regresi kuantil (quantile regression) dengan model penelitian CoVaR. Hasil pengukuran dan analisis risiko sistemik menunjukkan bahwa mayoritas bank individu memberikan kontribusi tambahan pada risiko sistemik secara keseluruhan. Kontribusi risiko tertinggi bank individu terhadap sistem ada pada Bank ICB Bumiputera dan yang terendah ada pada Bank OCBC NISP. Selain itu, berdasarkan analisis keterkaitan finansial, antar bank, dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa risiko individu sebuah bank yang dikondisikan kepada risiko bank lain menghasilkan tambahan risiko yang beragam. Hal ini mengkonfirmasi bahwa ketika sebuah bank mengalami distress, keadaan tersebut tidak serta merta memberikan tambahan risiko individu kepada bank lain. Bank dengan keterkaitan finansial paling tinggi adalah Bank ICB Bumiputera sementara yang paling rendah ada pada Bank Victoria International. Melalui hasil yang diperoleh, disarankan kepada pemerintah untuk melakukan pengawasan khusus melalui OJK terhadap bank dengan kontribusi risiko sistemik yang tinggi dan keterkaitan finansial yang kuat dengan bank lain melalui pengawasan pergerakan sahamnya.

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ABSTRACTThis thesis aims to analyse systemic risk and financial linkage in Indonesian banks. The study was conducted on 16 banks that are traded actively in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Research methodology is quantile regression with CoVaR as the research model. The results shows that the majority of bank contribute to the systemic risk. The highest contributor is Bank ICB Bumiputera and the lowest is Bank OCB NISP. On the other hand, the result of financial linkage of banks shows various impact from one to another. This also confirm when a bank has distress, it doesnt mean the other bank will get additional risk. The highest financial linkage is Bank ICB Bumiputera and the lowest is Bank Victoria International. Through this result, we suggest that government should do special observation to the bank with high contribution to systemic risk and high financial linkage."