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"The research aimed to construct the scenario of sub-national government administration in Indonesia and its available alternatives. The approach used was qualitative approach with the method of focus group discussion (FGD) and in-depth interview with economic and social politicians and bureaucrats. In addition secondary data were used to support the result. Two scenarios of the environment of Indonesian sub-national administration for 2025 are gained from two FGDs: the Utopian Scenario and Tumble into the Gutter Scenario. According to the first FGD, the utopian scenario is less likely to happen within the next 20 years, while the tumble-into-the-gutter scenario is considered more likely, especially if the recent condition is long-drawn-out, the homework is never done, and there is lack of awareness from national and local political elites on the recent crisis."

"The research aimed to construct the scenario of sub-national government administration in Indonesia and its available alternatives. The approach used was qualitative approach with the method of focus group discussion (FGD) and in-depth interview with economic and social politicians and bureaucrats. In addition secondary data were used to support the result. Two scenarios of the environment of Indonesian sub-national administration for 2025 are gained from two FGDs: the Utopian Scenario and Tumble into the Gutter Scenario. According to the first FGD, the utopian scenario is less likely to happen within the next 20 years, while the tumble-into-the-gutter scenario is considered more likely, especially if the recent condition is long-drawn-out, the homework is never done, and there is lack of awareness from national and local political elites on the recent crisis."

"Reformasi administrasi pemerintah subnasional merupakan hal yang tak dapat ditunda-tunda. Persoalannya adalah bagaimana melakukannya. Bagaimana strateginya. Dengan latar belakang lingkungan lokal, nasional, regional, serta internasional yang tidak menentu. Disertasi ini memakai pendekatan scenario planning dalam membangun strategi reformasi administrasi pemerintah subnasional. Untuk itu dibutuhkan tiga tahapan penelitian yang sekaligus dicerminkan oleh tiga pokok permasalahan. Masing-masing adalah: pertama, bagaimanakah potret administrasi publik pemerintah subnasional di Indonesia saat ini? Kedua, bagaimanakah deskripsi skenario lingkungan administrasi publik (aspek sosial-politik dan ekonomi) pemerintah subnasional pada tahun 2025? Ketiga, bagaimanakah grand strategy reformasi administrasi publik pemerintah subnasional sampai tahun 2025?

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Administrative Reform at the subnational level is very urgent business to be done. The questions are how to implement it and what is the strategy to implement it. With the local, national, regional and international uncertainty this dissertation, using scenario planning, try to develop strategy for administrative reform at the subnational level in indonesia. This has been done through three stages of research which is reflected by three main research problems. First, what are the pictures of the subnational public administration in indonesia now? Second, what are the scenarios of the environment (social aspect, political aspect and economic aspect) of public administration at the subnational level at the year 2025? Third, what is the administrative reform grand strategy of the public administration at the subnational level in Indonesia until the year 2025?"

"The first rank of cause of death is the circulatory system, followed by infection, respiratory, digestive, musculoskeletal, endocrine, neoplasm, accidents/injuries. The cause of deaths proportion of the circulatory system and endocrine are greater in urban than in urban areas, while deaths due to infectious diseases, respiratory system, and digestive were greater in rural than in urban areas."

"Jaminan keamanan pasokan energi di masa mendatang merupakan salah satu isu strategis yang sangat penting dalam rangka melindungi kepentingan nasional suatu negara. Ketergantungan perekonomian nasional pada BBM/solar yang menyebabkan biaya tinggi, subsidi BBM yang memberatkan keuangan negara, produksi gas nasional yang lebih berorientasi ekspor (asing), rendahnya daya serap pasar gas domestik terkait minimnya infrastruktur migas dan kendala geografis, ketergantungan pasokan gas dalam negeri pada impor LNG, kurangnya sosialisasi akan pentingnya konversi BBM ke gas di seluruh kalangan stakeholders, dan dinamika harga minyak global yang mempengaruhi pasokan bahan bakar nasional merupakan trends yang melatarbelakangi pentingnya peran gas LNG sebagai salah satu alternatif mengatasi kelangkaan energi dan bahan bakar di masa mendatang. Konversi BBM ke gas LNG dan pemenuhan kebutuhan gas dalam negeri tidaklah cukup tanpa didukung oleh rantai pasok LNG nasional yang efisien, ekonomis, dan mampu menyesuaikan kondisi geografis dan lokasi konsumen. Untuk itulah, tesis ini berupaya untuk memberikan early warning melalui pengembangan skenario hingga tahun 2025 kepada seluruh stakeholders terkait, dalam rangka memperkuat ketahanan energi nasional melalui perspektif pentingnya distribusi dan LNG shipping skala kecil. Konsep dan teori yang digunakan sebagai dasar ilmiah tesis ini adalah konsep keamanan energi, ketahanan energi, kebijakan energi, rantai pasok LNG, PESTLE analysis, scenario planning, dan optimasi rantai pasok LNG. Metode penelitian adalah pendekatan kualitatif dengan sumber data berasal dari data sekunder (studi literatur) dan primer (wawancara). Analisis eksternal menggunakan konsep PESTLE analysis, sedangkan analisis internal menggunakan model optimasi rantai pasok pengangkutan LNG skala kecil. Dengan demikian skenario ini secara eksternal teruji dan secara internal layak untuk dikembangkan. Pengembangan skenario dalam tesis ini menggunakan konsep scenario planning dan TAIDA process. Hasil penelitian menunjukan terdapat empat skenario yang mungkin terjadi hingga tahun 2025 terkait dengan peran distribusi dan LNG shipping dalam memperkuat pemenuhan kebutuhan gas LNG domestik, yaitu skenario 1 segera menuju kemandirian energi (optimis), skenario 2 tanpa arahan (pesimis), skenario 3 di sisi jurang krisis (terburuk), dan skenario 4 menggapai mimpi (pesimis). Indonesia berada pada skenario 4 yaitu political will terhadap pengembangan LNG skala kecil oleh pemerintah cukup kuat. Akan tetapi pembangunan infrastruktur LNG skala kecil dalam negeri masih belum memadai sehingga diperlukan suatu strategi, program, dan langkah-langkah pemenuhan kebutuhan gas domestik yang mempertimbangkan faktor politik-kebijakan-hukum, faktor ekonomi-pasar-infrastruktur, dan pola manajemen dan operasional yang tepat.

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The guarantee for security of energy supply in the future is one of the strategic issues that are very important in order to protect national interests of a country. Dependence of the national economy on fossil fuel that has been bringing about high costs, fuel subsidies that have been causing state's financial burden, the national gas production that has been export oriented, low domestic gas market absorption related to lack of oil and gas infrastructure ? let alone geographical constraints, dependence on a domestic gas supply LNG imports, minimum socialization of the importance of converting oil into gas within all stakeholders, and the dynamics of global oil prices affecting the national fuel supply are some trends underlying the importance of the role of LNG as an alternative energy source to overcome the scarcity of energy and fuels in the future. Both fuel conversion to LNG and the fulfillment of domestic gas demands cannot be successful without the support by national LNG supply chain that is efficient, economical, and capable of adjusting with the geographical condition and the relatively remote location of the consumers. For this reason, this thesis seeks to provide "early warning" through the development of the scenario up to 2025 for all stakeholders, in order to strengthen national energy security through the perspective of the importance of distribution and LNG shipping small scale.

Concepts and theories used as scientific basis of this thesis are the concepts of energy security, energy resilience, energy policy, LNG supply chain, PESTLE analysis, scenario planning, and optimization of the LNG supply chain. The research method is qualitative approach, the data sources of which derived from secondary data (literature) and primary (interview). External analysis uses PESTLE whereas internal analysis uses a model of supply chain optimization of small-scale LNG transport. Therefore, this scenario is externally valid and internally feasibly to be developed. Scenario development in this thesis uses the concept of scenario planning and TAIDA process.

The results shows that there are four possible scenarios up to 2025 related to the role of distribution and LNG shipping in strengthening the fulfillment of domestic LNG gas needs, i.e. scenario 1 "coming toward energy independence" (optimistic), scenario 2 "without direction" (pessimistic), scenario 3 "on the edge of crisis" (the worst), and scenario 4 "reaching the dream" (pessimistic). Indonesiais in the fourth scenario which is "political will" of government for developing small-scale LNG that is strong enough. However, the construction of small-scale LNG infrastructure in the country is still not adequate so that some strategies, programs, and measurements are needed to meet the demand of domestic gas considering the combination of political-policy-legal factors, economic-market-infrastructure factors, and precise operational and management pattern."

"Kebijakan neutral carbon growth oleh ICAO ditahun 2050, membuat pemerintah Indonesia mengeluarkan instruksi pemerintah melaui ESDM tentang target pencampuran bahan bakar berbasis bio untuk avtur 5 ditahun 2025. Beberapa sumber potensial yang melimpah untuk dikonversi menjadi Bioavtur di Indonesia diantaranya minyak nabati pangan kelapa sawit serta minyak nabati yang juga memiliki produksi besar seperti kedelai dan biji bunga matahari dan minyak nabati non-pangan kosambi, nyamplung, kemiri sunan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan memodelkan proses hydro processing menggunakan simulator proses dengan mengoptimasi kondisi operasi pada masing-masing bahan baku dan diranking dengan menggunakan AHP berdasarkan efektifitas dan efisiensi ketersediaan, konversi, yield, suhu operasi, konsumsi H2, tekanan operasi dan harga bahan baku. Proses Hydrotreatment yang divariasikan pada tekanan 1-5 MPa dan temperatur 250°C 350°C. menunjukkan Minyak nabati yang paling baik digunakan sebagai bahan baku produksi Bioavtur adalah minyak kemiri sunan, minyak kelapa sawit dan minyak nyaplung secara berturut-turut.

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The policy of neutral carbon growth by ICAO in 2050, has prompted the Indonesian government to issue government instruction through ESDM on the target of bio based mixing of fuels for 5 avtur by 2025. Some of the abundant potential sources to be converted to biofuel in Indonesia include vegetable oils palm oil and vegetable oils that also have large productions such as soybeans and sunflower seeds and non food vegetable oils kosambi, nyamplung, kemiri sunan. The study was conducted by modeling the hydroprocessing process using a process simulator by optimizing the operating conditions of each raw material and ranked by using AHP based on effectiveness and efficiency availability, conversion, yield, operating temperature, hydrogen consumption, operating pressure and raw material prices. Hydrotreatment process is varied at 1 5 MPa pressure and temperature 250°C 350°C. shows that vegetable oils that are best used as raw material for Bioavure production are Kemiri Sunan oil, Palm oil, and Nyaplung oil respectively."

"Kebijakan neutral carbon growth oleh ICAO ditahun 2050, membuat pemerintah Indonesia mengeluarkan instruksi pemerintah melaui ESDM tentang target pencampuran bahan bakar berbasis bio untuk avtur 5 ditahun 2025. Beberapa sumber potensial yang melimpah untuk dikonversi menjadi Bioavtur di Indonesia diantaranya minyak nabati pangan kelapa sawit serta minyak nabati yang juga memiliki produksi besar seperti kedelai dan biji bunga matahari dan minyak nabati non-pangan kosambi, nyamplung, kemiri sunan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan memodelkan proses hydroprocessing menggunakan simulator proses dengan mengoptimasi kondisi operasi pada masing-masing bahan baku dan diranking dengan menggunakan AHP berdasarkan efektifitas dan efisiensi ketersediaan,konversi, yield, suhu operasi, konsumsi H2, tekanan operasi dan harga bahan baku. Proses Hydrotreatment yang divariasikan pada tekanan 1-5 MPa dan temperatur 250oC-350oC. menunjukkan Minyak nabati yang paling baik digunakan sebagai bahan baku produksi Bioavtur adalah minyak kemiri sunan, minyak kelapa sawit dan minyak nyaplung secara berturut-turut.

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The policy of neutral carbon growth by ICAO in 2050, has prompted the Indonesian government to issue government instruction through ESDM on the target of bio based mixing of fuels for 5 avtur by 2025. Some of the abundant potential sources to be converted to biofuel in Indonesia include vegetable oils palm oil and vegetable oils that also have large productions such as soybeans and sunflower seeds and non food vegetable oils kosambi, nyamplung, kemiri sunan. The study was conducted by modeling the hydroprocessing process using a process simulator by optimizing the operating conditions of each raw material and ranked by using AHP based on effectiveness and efficiency availability, conversion, yield, operating temperature, hydrogen consumption, operating pressure and raw material prices. Hydrotreatment process is varied at 1 5 MPa pressure and temperature 250 C 350 C. shows that vegetable oils that are best used as raw material for Bioavure production are Kemiri Sunan oil, Palm oil, and Nyaplung oil respectively."