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"[ABSTRAKTesis ini menganalisis hubungan antara perubahan nilai tukar Indonesia terhadap perbedaan tingkat suku bunga antara Indonesia sebagai negara tujuan investasi mata uang dengan negara negara penyandang dana investasi mata uang dan tingkat risk averse dari investor yang tercermin dalam indeks volatility VIX Tesis ini juga menganalisis ambang batas runtuhnya strategi Carry Trade dengan menggunakan model threshold Penelitian ini fokus pada strategy Carry Trade YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR untuk period 01 Agustus 2005 hingga 18 September 2015 Hasil penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa ambang batas VIX pada saat runtuhnya strategi USD IDR dan EUR IDR Carry Trade lebih rendah dibandingkan strategi YEN IDR Carry Trade Pada periode krisis finansial tahun 2008 Carry Trade YEN IDR menjadi lebih sensitif Hal ini tercermin lewat menurunnya ambang batas VIX Penemuan lain dalam penelitian ini adalah perbedaan tingkat suku bunga dan indeks VIX merupakan faktor faktor penting bagi investor Semakin tinggi suku bunga Indonsia dibandingkan negara penyandang dana akan menciptakan positif profit pada strategi Carry Trade Selain itu tingginya ketidakpastian di pasar finansial yang dicerminkan lewat meningkatnya nilai indeks VIX mengakibatkan adanya kemungkinan para investor menarik investasinya

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ABSTRACTThis study analyzes the relationship between changes in Indonesia rsquo s exchange rate to interest rate differential between Indonesia as an investment currency country and funding currencies countries and the level of international investor risk aversion using the volatility index VIX threshold model for carry trade collapse The focus study is on carry trades based on the YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR currency pairs over the period 01 August 2005 to 18 September 2015 The results indicate that the VIX threshold of carry trades unwinding for USD IDR and EUR IDR is lower than YEN IDR However during the financial crisis in 2008 YEN IDR carry trades become more sensitive showed by the decreasing VIX threshold value Another finding is the interest rate differential and volatility index which reflects the market uncertainty are important factors for investors This implies that the higher gap between Indonesia rsquo s interest rates and funding currencies interest rates will give the positive return in carry trade activities In addition the higher degree of market uncertainty leads the investors to unwind the carry trade ;This study analyzes the relationship between changes in Indonesia rsquo s exchange rate to interest rate differential between Indonesia as an investment currency country and funding currencies countries and the level of international investor risk aversion using the volatility index VIX threshold model for carry trade collapse The focus study is on carry trades based on the YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR currency pairs over the period 01 August 2005 to 18 September 2015 The results indicate that the VIX threshold of carry trades unwinding for USD IDR and EUR IDR is lower than YEN IDR However during the financial crisis in 2008 YEN IDR carry trades become more sensitive showed by the decreasing VIX threshold value Another finding is the interest rate differential and volatility index which reflects the market uncertainty are important factors for investors This implies that the higher gap between Indonesia rsquo s interest rates and funding currencies interest rates will give the positive return in carry trade activities In addition the higher degree of market uncertainty leads the investors to unwind the carry trade ;This study analyzes the relationship between changes in Indonesia rsquo s exchange rate to interest rate differential between Indonesia as an investment currency country and funding currencies countries and the level of international investor risk aversion using the volatility index VIX threshold model for carry trade collapse The focus study is on carry trades based on the YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR currency pairs over the period 01 August 2005 to 18 September 2015 The results indicate that the VIX threshold of carry trades unwinding for USD IDR and EUR IDR is lower than YEN IDR However during the financial crisis in 2008 YEN IDR carry trades become more sensitive showed by the decreasing VIX threshold value Another finding is the interest rate differential and volatility index which reflects the market uncertainty are important factors for investors This implies that the higher gap between Indonesia rsquo s interest rates and funding currencies interest rates will give the positive return in carry trade activities In addition the higher degree of market uncertainty leads the investors to unwind the carry trade ;This study analyzes the relationship between changes in Indonesia rsquo s exchange rate to interest rate differential between Indonesia as an investment currency country and funding currencies countries and the level of international investor risk aversion using the volatility index VIX threshold model for carry trade collapse The focus study is on carry trades based on the YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR currency pairs over the period 01 August 2005 to 18 September 2015 The results indicate that the VIX threshold of carry trades unwinding for USD IDR and EUR IDR is lower than YEN IDR However during the financial crisis in 2008 YEN IDR carry trades become more sensitive showed by the decreasing VIX threshold value Another finding is the interest rate differential and volatility index which reflects the market uncertainty are important factors for investors This implies that the higher gap between Indonesia rsquo s interest rates and funding currencies interest rates will give the positive return in carry trade activities In addition the higher degree of market uncertainty leads the investors to unwind the carry trade , This study analyzes the relationship between changes in Indonesia rsquo s exchange rate to interest rate differential between Indonesia as an investment currency country and funding currencies countries and the level of international investor risk aversion using the volatility index VIX threshold model for carry trade collapse The focus study is on carry trades based on the YEN IDR USD IDR and EUR IDR currency pairs over the period 01 August 2005 to 18 September 2015 The results indicate that the VIX threshold of carry trades unwinding for USD IDR and EUR IDR is lower than YEN IDR However during the financial crisis in 2008 YEN IDR carry trades become more sensitive showed by the decreasing VIX threshold value Another finding is the interest rate differential and volatility index which reflects the market uncertainty are important factors for investors This implies that the higher gap between Indonesia rsquo s interest rates and funding currencies interest rates will give the positive return in carry trade activities In addition the higher degree of market uncertainty leads the investors to unwind the carry trade ]"

"This thesis uses general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on Indonesia. The analysis covers how price and quantity change in response to tariff liberalization under ACFTA framework. Demand and supply elasticity is needed to calculate welfare effects. Difference-in-differences method is applied to estimate demand elasticity while supply elasticity is calculated through Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions using tariff as an instrument. The results show that Indonesia's demand is elastic enough and supply to Indonesia is fairly elastic. Indonesia consumers are willing to substitute products between different sources due to price changes. ACFTA would increase production quantity for all member countries but had insignificant effect on reducing price of goods. Furthermore, I confirm result from existing literature that trade creation effect is dominated than trade diversion effect."

"Setiap negara, termasuk Indonesia, memiliki otonomi dan kedaulatan dalam membentuk peraturan nasional untuk mencapai tujuan kebijakan yang bukan perdagangan atau non-trade policy objectives yang dikehendaki oleh negara tersebut. Pada praktiknya muncul sengketa-sengketa di hadapan Dispute Settlement Body World Trade Organization (DSB WTO) dimana justifikasi berdasarkan non-trade policy objectives atas klaim ketidakpatuhan terhadap komitmen liberalisasi dalam General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT) diuji keabsahannya, namun banyak negara gagal dalam menjustifikasikan non-trade policy objectivesnya, termasuk dalam hal ini, Indonesia. Terkait dengan hal tersebut, penelitian kritis mengenai pengaturan justifikasi berdasarkan non-trade policy objectives dalam GATT, praktik negara-negara, serta praktik justifikasi Indonesia berdasarkan non-trade policy objectives menjadi penting. Tesis ini disusun dengan menggunakan metode penelitian doktrinal. GATT pada dasarnya memiliki mekanisme justifikasi berdasarkan non-trade policy objectives sebagaimana diatur dalam Article XX GATT tentang General Exceptions. Praktik negara-negara dalam melakukan justifikasi menunjukan bahwa negara hanya dapat menjustifikasikan non-trade policy objectivesnya berdasarkan Article XX GATT apabila, berdasarkan bukti yang cukup, kebijakan negara tersebut secara murni dan berdasarkan itikad baik ditujukan untuk objectives yang tercakup dalam Article XX GATT seperti dalam Kasus EC - Asbestos. Praktik yang dilakukan Indonesia bahkan belum dapat menunjukan necessity dan keterhubungan antara non-trade policy objectives yang diadopsinya dengan objectives yang tercakup dalam Article XX GATT. Putusan DSB WTO cenderung menggunakan interpretasi dengan metode tekstual dan tidak menggunakan interpretasi berdasarkan pertimbangan deference to states yang mempertimbangkan Indonesia sebagai negara berkembang. Sehingga Indonesia tetap wajib menyesuaikan peraturan domestiknya dengan ketentuan-ketentuan GATT berdasarkan prinsip pacta sunt servanda dan menjalankannya dengan itikad baik.

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Any states, including Indonesia, has the autonomy and sovereignty to establish domestic regulations to achieve non-trade policy objectives which the states desired. In practices dispute appears before the Dispute Settlement Body of the World Trade Organization (DSB WTO) where justification based on non-trade policy objectives for claim of incompliances to liberalization commitment in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994 (GATT) is being tested for its legitimation, however many countries failed to justify its non-trade policy objectives, including in this case, Indonesia. In relation to that, the critical research on the rules of justification based on non-trade policy objectives in the GATT, state practices, as well as Indonesia’s justification practices based on non-trade policy objectives is important. This thesis is written with doctrinal research method. Fundamentally, GATT have justification of non-trade policy objectives mechanism based on Article XX GATT on General Exceptions. State practices in justifying its non-trade policy objectives shows that a country can only justify its non-trade policy objectives based on Article XX GATT if, based on sufficient proof, the state’s measure purely and based on good faith is aimed to achieve the objectives covered in Article XX GATT as appeared in EC – Asbestos case. Indonesia practices has not shown necessity and interlinkage between the adopted non-trade policy objectives with the objectives stipulated in Article XX GATT. The DSB WTO tends to use interpretation using traditional-textual methods, nor does it use interpretation based on considerations of deference to states where Indonesia is a developing country. Thus, Indonesia is still obliged to adapt its domestic regulations in accordance with the GATT provisions based on the pacta sunt servanda principle and implement them in good faith."

"Setiap negara seringkali menghadapi defisit neraca perdagangan. Beberapa studi empiris menyatakan bahwa pendapatan dan nilai tukar merupakan faktor penentu utama neraca perdagangan. Penulis berpendapat bahwa komposisi ekspor dan impor juga merupakan variabel penjelas utama karena beberapa barang bersifat inelastis dan/atau memiliki nilai tambah yang tinggi, yang secara langsung dan tidak langsung mempengaruhi elastisitas pendapatan dan harga serta neraca perdagangan. Dengan demikian, apabila ekspor dan/atau impor yang signifikan terdiri dari produk-produk yang inelastis, maka dampak positif dan negatifnya diperkirakan akan berdampak pada neraca perdagangan. Beberapa prosedur seleksi digunakan untuk mengetahui komposisi komoditas ekspor-impor mana yang mempengaruhi perdagangan bilateral antara Indonesia dan negara mitra. Proses tersebut menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 14 komoditas ekspor dan 23 komoditas impor yang terus menerus mempengaruhi neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia. Terdapat 11 negara mitra yang menunjukkan kemitraan perdagangan yang konsisten dalam kurun waktu 1999 hingga 2021. Dengan menggunakan data perdagangan bilateral dan model panel, penulis menemukan bahwa ekspor minyak/lemak hewani dan nabati serta kertas & kertas karton berhubungan secara signifikan dan positif terhadap neraca perdagangan barang Indonesia. Sementara itu, bahan bakar mineral mempunyai hubungan negatif namun signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan barang Indonesia. Rasio neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia juga merespons perubahan pendapatan relatif dan nilai tukar.

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Every country often faces a trade balance deficit. Several empirical studies state that income and exchange rates are the main determining factors of the trade balance. The author believes that the composition of exports and imports is also a key explanatory variable because some goods are inelastic and/or with high added value, which directly and indirectly affects income and price elasticity and the trade balance. Thus, if significant exports and/or imports consist of inelastic products, then the positive and negative impacts are expected to have an impact on the trade balance. Some selection procedures are used to find out which export-import commodity composition influence the bilateral trade between Indonesia and partner countries. The process showed that there are 14 export commodities and 23 import commodities continuously affect Indonesia bilateral trade balance. There are 11 countries partner are shown consistent trade partnership within 1999 to 2021. Using bilateral trade data and panel models, the author finds that exports of animal and vegetable oils/fats and paper & paperboards are significantly and positively related to Indonesia's goods trade balance. Meanwhile, mineral fuels have a negative but significant relationship to Indonesia's goods trade balance. Indonesia's bilateral trade balance ratio also responds to changes in relative income and exchange rates."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak pemberlakuan SNI secara wajib sebagai hambatan teknis perdagangan dan menganalisis dampak standardiasi nasional terhadap nilai perdagangan Indonesia yang direfleksikan dalam nilai impor setiap tahun dari 146 negara pada periode tahun 2001-2019. Analisis ini menggunakan metode gravitasi dan random effect model. Dari analisis ini diketahui bahwa standarisasi nasional menghambat perdagangan dengan nilai impor keseluruhan dan nilai impor kecil namun tidak berpengaruh pada perdagangan dengan nilai impor besar. Standardisasi nasional dengan menggunakan standar-spesifik-negara signifikan mempromosikan perdagangan dengan nilai impor keseluruhan dan nilai impor kecil namun tidak berpengaruh pada perdagangan dengan nilai impor besar.

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This study aims to analyze the impact of mandatory SNI application as technical

barrier to trade and analyze the impact of standard harmonization on its effect of Indonesian

trade's value which is reflected in Indonesian import trade's value each year at the nation

level towards 146 countries during research year of 2001-2019. This analysis uses the gravity method and random effect model. From this analysis, it is known that national standardization

significantly inhibits overall-import-value and small-import-value trade but do not affect

large-import-value trade. National standardization using country-specific-standards

significantly promotes overall-import-value and small-import-value trade but has no affect

on large-import-value trade"

"Terobsesf oleh keinginan yang menggebu-gebu untuk region kedaiam sistem perekonomian liberal, (ironisnya) selama lebihdari tiga dasawarsa dibawah cengkeraman penguasa-penguasa otoriter, oleh pihak eksekutif dan legislatif diIndonesia dirurmuskan kebijakaan dan produk-produk hukumyang mengacu kepada liberalisasi di bidang perdagangan.Tindakan tersebut dilakukan dengan mengabaikan strukturdan budaya masyarakat Indonesia yang dari generasi kegenerasi lebih diwarnai nilai spirituil daripada materiil. Padasaat di dalam masyarakat dibutuhkan transformasi hukum,oleh penguasa dipaksakan transplantasi hukum. Akibatnyatimbul ketidaikpastian hukum di negara ini karena terdapatjurang yang dalam antara peraturan perundang-undanganyang ada dengan sikap-tindak warga masyarakat yangmengacu pada sistem nilai yang bukan hanya berbeda, tetapibahkan bertenrangan dalam kehidupan sehari-hari. Kondisiinilah yang menjadi lanan subur bagi tumbuh danberkembangnya praktek-praktek kolusi. korupsi dan nepotisme(KKN). KKN tidak terbatas dikalangan rezim penguasa dansebagian elit pengusaha, terapi merebak juga di lingkunganlegislatif, yudikatif dan terutama di kalangan aparat penegakhukum. Praktek-praktek ini telah menyeret dan masihmenjerumuskan nasib bangsa Indonesia ke dalam malapetakakrisis multi-dimensi yang tiada bandingnya."

"Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah ingin mengetahui hubungan antara liberalisasi perdagangan dan kemiskinan di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data panel 26 propinsi wilayah kota-desa selama kurun waktu 1996-2005, Setelah melakukan pengujian dan analisa hubungan antara hDeralisasi perdagangan dan kemiskinan di Indonesia dapat disimpulkan bahwa liberalisasi perdagangan memberikan pengaruh negatif secara langsung terhadap kemiskinan, dimana liberalisasi perdagangan dapat menurunkan tingkat kemiskinan. Sementara secara tidak langsung, liberalisasi perdagangan tidak menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan dengan tingkat kemiskinan. Meskipun liberalisasi perdagangan terbukti marnpu meningkatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan perkapita, namun pendapatan perkapita sendiri tidak signifikan mempengaruhi tingkat kemiskinan. Demikian pula dengan ketidakmerataan, liberalisasi perdagangan tidak menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan dengan ketidaktuerataan di Indonesia, meskipun ketidaktmerataan berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kemiskinan.

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This study aims to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty in Indonesia This study focuses an 26 provincial level data over the period 1996-2005. Simultaneous equation estimation is applied to investigate the trade poverty helps to reduce poverty directly. Meanwhile, it's indirectly impact is not clear. Trade liberalization shows no significant impact on poverty indirectly neither through trade--growth-poverty linkage, nor trough trade-inequality-poverty linkage. Although thatrade liberalization helps to promote income growth in Indonesia, but the poverty equation estimation has confirmed the insignificant role of growth in reducing urban poverty. The estimation for the inequality equation shows that although a positive impact of inequality on poverty is found in the regression, there is no apparent interaction effect exist between trade and inequality in Indonesia."

"Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak dari liberalisasi perdagangan antara Indonesia dan Turkey.Studi ini menggunakan Model General Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dan melakukan simulasi skema penurunan tariff yang dinilai sebagai hambatannya. Selain itu, untuk memformulasikan ?produk yang memiliki indikator yang baik? yang terkait dalam liberalisasi perdagangan tersebut, studi ini menggunakan perhitungan index sebagai indikasi bahwa produk tersebut mempunyai potensi untuk ditingkatkan.Beberapa tujuan menunjukan bahwa liberalisasi perdagangan Indonesia dan Turki memiliki dampak positif dan signifikan buat Indonesia. Khususnya neraca perdagangan Indonesia, peningkatkan kesejahteraan, peningkatan tenaga kerja. Nampaknya liberalisasi perdagangan bilateral antara Indonesia dan Turkey akan memberikan keuntungan yang lebih besar kepada indonesia dibandingkan dengan Turkey.

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This study is aimed to investigate the impact of bilateral trade liberalization between Indonesia and Turkey. This study is using the General Trade Analysis Project model and simulating the tariff reduction scheme which was considered as barriers to trade. In addition, to formulate ?a product that has a good indicator? that involved in the trade liberalization, this study uses index calculations as an indication that the product has the potential to be enhance.Some findings as followings: the trade liberalization between Indonesia and Turkey has a significant and positive impact for Indonesia especially of the trade balance, increasing of welfare, and employment changes. It seem that the bilateral trade liberalization between Indonesia and Turkey will give higher benefit to Indonesian economy compared to Turkey."