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"ABSTRAKKebijakan subsidi erat kaitannya dengan harga minyak dikarenakan keputusandalam kebijakan subsidi minyak tergantung pada fluktuasi harga minyak dunia.Penelitian ini mencoba menganalisis hubungan antara guncangan harga minyakdengan variabel - variabel ekonomi makro termasuk faktor fiskal di Indonesiatahun 1990 sampai dengan 2013. Penggunaan SVARX, Structural AutoregressionModel dengan penambahan variabel eksogen, menciptakan kemungkinan untukmenganalisis interaksi dinamis antara variabel – variabel yang diestimasi. Analisisimpulse response menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi, dalam hal ini GDPriil, merespon positif terhadap guncangan harga minyak dalam jangka pendek.Pertumbuhan ekonomi merespon secara negatif terhadap guncangan harga minyakpada kuartal keenam. Selain itu, otoritas fiskal dan moneter merespon guncanganharga minyak dengan meningkatkan subsidi pemerintah dan tingkat bunga. Dalamhal ini, respon dari pemerintah dengan melindungi perekonomian Indonesia dariguncangan harga minyak melalui kebijakan fiskal dan moneter dinilai cukupefektif. Di sisi lain, belanja pemerintah memberikan respon yang positif terhadapguncangan subsidi minyak. Sementara itu, tingkat inflasi membutuhkan time laguntuk merespon guncangan subsidi minyak dan memberikan respon positif setelahkuartal kedua, GDP riil merespon secara positif terhadap guncangan subsidiminyak. Hal ini berarti bahwa kebijakan subsidi mempengaruhi pertumbuhanekonomi secara positif meskipun harus dibiayai dengan menggunakan belanjapemerintah yang tinggi.

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ABSTRACTThere is a close relationship between oil price and subsidy spending sincedecision in subsidy policy depends on the fluctuation of oil prices. This studyexplores the relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variablesincluding fiscal factors in Indonesia during 1990 – 2013. The use of StructuralVector Autoregression Model with exogenous variables (SVARX) creates thepossibility to capture dynamic interactions between estimated variables. Impulseresponse analysis shows that economic growth represented by real GDP respondspositively to oil price shocks in the short run. Negative response of economicgrowth to oil price shocks appears after six quarters. Furthermore, fiscal andmonetary authorities respond to oil price shocks by increasing governmentsubsidy and interest rate. In this case, response from government by protectingIndonesian economy from oil price shocks through fiscal and monetary policycould be effective in the short run. On the other hand, government spendingresponds positively to oil subsidy shocks. While inflation rate needs time lag inorder to respond oil subsidy shocks and responds positively after second quarter,real GDP (in percentage change) responds directly and positively to oil subsidyshocks. It could mean that subsidy policy temporarily affects economic growthalthough it should be paid using high government expenditure."

"Sejak pemerintah memberlakukan kebijakan subsidi tetap untuk bahan bakar minyak (BBM) jenis solar, harga eceran solar bergerak secara cepat dan fluktuatif. Peraturan Presiden No.191 tahun 2014 tentang Penyediaan, Pendistribusian dan Harga Jual Eceran BBM telah memberi kewenangan kepada Menteri ESDM untuk menetapkan harga dasar dan harga jual eceran BBM, sehingga hampir sebulan sekali terjadi perubahan harga eceran solar. Tujuan tesis ini adalah untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan subsidi tetap harga BBM jenis solar terhadap perubahan harga sembako di Indonesia, dan menganalisis terjadinya transmisi harga antara harga solar dan harga sembako. Berdasarkan pengujian dengan pendekatan teori Asymmetric Vertical Price Transmission dan model Error Correction (ECM), didapatkan bahwa hubungan antara harga solar dan harga sembako bersifat tidak simetris, yaitu ketika harga solar naik, maka harga telur, beras dan daging ayam naik, namun ketika harga solar turun, harga telur, beras dan daging ayam tidak ikut turun. Harga telur, beras dan daging ayam terkoreksi kembali kepada keseimbangan jangka panjangnya dalam jangka waktu 2 sampai 4 bulan. Sedangkan untuk komoditi jenis gula, susu, minyak goreng dan daging sapi, pergerakan harga keempat komoditi tersebut tidak memiliki hubungan kointegrasi dengan harga solar. Faktor yang menyebabkan transmisi harga tidak simetris ini adalah kekakuan harga jasa transportasi dan perilaku spekulan yang memiliki market power dalam struktur pasar oligopoli, baik dalam rantai supply telur, beras dan daging ayam, dimana pedagang besar memiliki bargaining yang kuat dalam penentuan harga.

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Ever since the government formally issued fixed subsidy policy for diesel fuel, the price of diesel fuel has been very dynamic and volatile. Presidential Decree No.191/2014 has given authority to the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources for setting a basic price and selling price of diesel fuel. By the policy, the retail price of diesel fuel changes every month.

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the impact of fixed subsidy policy for diesel fuel on basic commodities price in Indonesia, and (2) to analyze price transmission between diesel fuel price and basic commodities price.

By using theory of asymmetric vertical price transmission and Error Correction Model (ECM), it can be shown that relations between diesel fuel price and basic commodities price is asymmetrical. It means when diesel fuel price increased, the price of eggs, rice and chicken meat increased accordingly, however, when diesel fuel price decreased, the price of egg, rice and chicken meat did not decrease. The price of egg, rice and chicken meat will be corrected to its long-term equilibrium with the diesel price for 2 to 4 months. Meanwhile, the price of other basic commodities such as sugar, milk, cooking oil and beef have not cointegrated with the diesel fuel price.

The asymmetric price transmission between diesel price and some of basic commodities is caused by price rigidity of transportation, and behavior of speculators which have market power in an oligopoly market structure in the supply chain of eggs, rice and chicken meat. In this case, big traders have a strong bargaining power for pricing."

"The policy of seed subsidy through seed producers is not effective.Lots of farmers are not using the encouraged labeled seeds because the price of subsidized seeds are relatively high and the quality of seeds produced by a number of producers is not well prepared as expected....."

"Persoalan inefisiensi membuat kebijakan subsidi BBM kurang diminati oleh banyak negara dalam beberapa dekade terakhir. Meskipun demikian, penghapusan subsidi ini dapat berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian, khususnya terkait kemiskinan, apabila tidak diiringi dengan program kompensasi yang tepat. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis program apakah yang paling tepat untuk diterapkan di Indonesia sebagai kompensasi penghapusan subsidi BBM. Program yang dibahas dalam artikel ini meliputi bantuan tunai, subsidi pangan, program pendidikan dan kesehatan, dan pembangunan infrastruktur. Dengan mempertimbangkan jangka waktu program, akurasi sasaran, dan isu kebebasan memilih, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak ada satu program yang unggul di ketiga aspek tersebut. Oleh karena itu, keputusan untuk memilih program mana yang akan diterapkan tergantung dari tujuan utama yang ingin dicapai oleh pemerintah. Tujuan jangka pendek dapat diwujudkan melalui bantuan tunai dan subsidi pangan sedangkan pembangunan sumber daya manusia dan infrastruktur dapat mewujudkan penghapusan kemiskinan secara lebih berkesinambungan.

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Inefficiency has led to fuel subsidies being a much less favourable policy for many countries dealing with oil price hikes over the last few decades. Nevertheless, removing fuel subsidies can have detrimental effects on the economy, particularly related to poverty issue, if there is no appropriate compensation program implemented. This study aims to assess what the most suitable compensation would be in the case of fuel subsidies being phased out in Indonesia. Four different programs considered in this study are a cash transfer, a food subsidy, an education and healthcare program, and investment in infrastructure. Evaluating these programs in terms of time frame, targeting recipients, and freedom of choice, it is found that there is no single program superior in all aspects. The decision on which program should be chosen by the government then depends on its main objective. While an immediate and short-run effect can be achieved by providing cash or inkind transfers to the poor, human capital accumulation and improvement in physical infrastructure offer a long-run and more sustainable effect on poverty alleviation."

"ABSTRAKPeningkatan kebutuhan domestik, peningkatan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak BBM di tingkat internasional, dan harga BBM jenis tertentu yang tetap, meningkatkan beban belanja subsidi BBM dalam APBN. Subsidi BBM yang berlebihan menimbulkan dampak negatif, sehingga perlu dilakukan upaya reformasi subsidi BBM jenis tertentu, salah satunya adalah kebijakan pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM jenis tertentu melalui peningkatan harga BBM bersubsidi. Studi ini bertujuan menghitung potensi beban belanja subsidi yang dapat diturunkan/dialihkan dari upaya perbaikan kebijakan subsidi BBM dan memperkirakan dampak dari pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM terhadap perekonomian nasional, baik terhadap output, pertumbuhan ekonomi, pendapatan masyarakat, maupun tenaga kerja. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa, pada tahun 2012, setiap 1 persen pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM jenis tertentu, maka harga BBM bersubsidi akan meningkat sebesar 0,6 persen secara rata-rata, dan konsumsi BBM bersubsidi akan menurun sebesar 0,06 persen. Dengan menggunakan analisis Tabel Input-Output I-O Indonesia tahun 2012 yang di-update dengan metode RAS dari Tabel IO Indonesia tahun 2008, menunjukan bahwa pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM pada tahun 2012 yang menurunkan konsumsi BBM sebesar 6 persen dan apabilat dialokasikan ke bidang infrastruktur, sektor industri non migas atau sektor pertanian, ternyata mampu meningkatkan output, nilai tambah atau PDB, pendapatan masyarakat, dan lapangan kerja dalam perekonomian nasional. Output perekonomian dan pendapatan rumah tangga nasional akan maksimal apabila pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM tersebut dialokasikan untuk investasi di bidang infrastruktur. Nilai tambah bruto PDB dan penyerapan tenaga kerja akan maksimal jika pengalihan alokasi anggaran subsidi BBM dilakukan untuk investasi di sektor pertanian. Sedangkan investasi di sektor industri non migas dari pengalihan alokasi anggeran subsidi BBM tidak dapat mengoptimalkan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian nasional.

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ABSTRACTThe increase in domestic demand, increase in international prices of fuel oil and fixed price of certain types of subsidized fuel, causing the increase of national budget APBN expenditure in certain types of fuel subsidy. Excessive fuel subsidies has a negative impact, so it is necessary to reforms several fuel subsidy, one of the policy is saving certain types of fuel subsidy through increased prices of subsidized fuel. This study aims to calculate the potential cost of subsidy that can be derived reallocate from the fuel subsidy policy reform and estimate the impact of the fuel subsidy savings to the national economy, both on output, economic growth, incomes, and employment. The study shows that in 2012 every 1 percent r reallocations in certain types of fuel subsidy, the subsidized fuel prices will increase by 0,6 percent on average, and the consumption of subsidized fuel will decrease by 0,06 percent. By using analysis Input Output I O Table of Indonesia in 2012 which is updated with the RAS method from I O Table of Indonesia in 2008, it shows that 100 percent reallocations in fuel subsidies in 2012 that lowered fuel consumption by 6 percent and the savings are allocated to the infrastructure sector, non oil industrial sector or the agricultural sector, was able to increase output, value added or GDP, incomes, and employment in the national economy. Economic output and household national income would be maximized if the fuel subsidy savings allocated for investment in infrastructure. Gross Domestic Product GDP and employment would be maximized if the fuel subsidy savings allocated for investment in the agricultural sector. While investment in non oil sector of the allocated fuel subsidy savings cannot optimize its impact on the national economy."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk menunjukkan bahwa sistem transportasi mempunyai peranan yang sangat penting dalam pembangunan ekonomi, terutama kegiatan produksi dan distribusi. Adanya perbedaan potensi antar daerah menjadikan transportasi sebagai satu-satunya sarana dalam pendistribusian barang agar dapat memenuhi kebutuhan suatu daerah.Penelitian ini menggunakan Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi dan Anal isis Jalur (Structural Analysis Path{ SPA). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah : Pertarna, untuk menganalisis pengaruh transportasi terhadap sektor produksi, faktor produksi dan institusi; Kedua untuk mengetahui identifikasi jalur pengaruh sektor transportasi pada penerimaan rumah tangga; Ketiga menganalisis pengaruh investasi di sektor transportasi terbadap sektor ekonomi dan institusi; Keempat untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan penurunan subsidi BBM terhadap penerimaan rumah tangga.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dengan sektor transportasi mempengaruhi sektor produksi, faktor produksi dan institusi, adanya investasi yang menyebabkan peningkatan output sektor transportasi akan meningkatkan sektor-sekfor ekonomi lainnya dan meningkatkan penerimaan institusi (rumah tangga dan perusabaan), tcrutama rumah tangga bukan pertanian golongan bawah dan atas di kota. Kebijakan penurunan subsidi rill BBM lebih berdampak pada rumah tangga bukan pertanian di kota baik golongan bawah maupun golongan atas sert.a rumah tangga golongan bawah di desa.Tetapi berdasarkan rasio tabungan, rumah tangga yang mendapat beban lebih berat karena penurunan subsidi riil BBM adalah golongan rumah tangga buruh tani, dan rumah tangga bukan angkatan kerja di desa.

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ABSTRAKThis thesis is intended to show that the transportation system has played a very important role in economic development, especially in production and distribution activities. Potential differentiation between region makes transportation become more important to distribute goods and service to fulfill the needs. By using the SAM and the SPA analysis the objectives of this study are first, to analyze the effect of transportation to industries/production sectors, production factors and institution; second, to identify the effect path of transportation on household income; third, to analyze the effect of transportation investment to economy sectors and institutions; forth, to analyze the effect of reducing petroleum subsidy to household income.The research show that investment on transportation will improve the economic development, through output reaction, as well as the household and firm income, especially for both lower and upper class of non agriculture household in urban area. The policy of lowering petroleum real subsidy has more impact to the lower class of non agriculture household in urban area and rural area, as well as the upper class in urban area. However, in term of saving ratio, household agricultural workers and non labor force household in rural area are those who get more burden."

"Indonesia Fuels demand increase every year; so that fuels subsidy increases progressively and APBN (National Budget) will become worst. With Parliament (DPR) approvement, government shall cut down the fuels subsidy step by step, and to determine type and total volume of fuels subsidized on year 2006, the type of fuels subsidized are Premium (regular Gasoline), Diesel Oil and Kerosene with total consumption equal to 41,58 million kL that was mean around 30% decreasing of subsidized fuel alocation. Analysis level of confidence in amount of Diesel Oil demand for transportation and Kerosene demand for household and small industries base on quota compared with the result of formulation from historical consumption conducted by Monte-Carlo simulation.

The result of simulation indicate that in 20012 Diesel oil demand for transportation base on quota having confidence level of 78,8%, and base on formulation having confidence level of 33,l%. While the result of simulation for Kerosene demand for household and small industries base on quota having confidence level of 62.6%, and base on formulation having confidence level of 80. 4%."

"Sejak tahun 2006, Indonesia merupakan negara penghasil minyak kelapa sawit terbesar di dunia. Perkembangan industri minyak kelapa sawit yang meliputi perluasan lahan bukan tanpa halangan. Pembukaan lahan baru selalu bertentangan dengan isu lingkungan hidup. Dalam penelitian sebelumnya di Malaysia, pembukaan lahan kelapa sawit baru berimplikasi negatif terhadap produksi minyak kelapa sawit dalam jangka panjang. Tesis ini membahas tentang hubungan antara luas lahan tanam, harga minyak kelapa sawit dan produksi minyak kelapa sawit di Indonesia dengan pendekatan kuantitatif menggunakan data tahunan yang meliputi luas lahan tanam, harga dan produksi minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia dari tahun 1980-2014. Data tersebut diperoleh dari Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan. Model yang digunakan adalah vector error correction model. Empat tahap analisis dalam penelitian ini meliputi uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi Johansen, VECM dan kausalitas Granger. Hasil dari penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa luas lahan tanam dan harga berpengaruh positif pada produksi dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka pendek, luas lahan tanam dan harga berpengaruh negatif terhadap produksi. Melalui kausalitas Granger terlihat bahwa luas area perkebunan memicu produksi dan produksi memicu harga. Untuk penelitian selanjutnya, peneliti menganjurkan agar melibatkan variabel-variabel lain yang terkait seperti ekspor minyak kelapa sawit, harga minyak kelapa sawit dunia dan harga barang substitusi.

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Since 2006, Indonesia is the biggest palm oil producer in the world. Palm oil industry advancement which includes clearing is not without a hitch. Clearing is always contradict with environmental issues. In a previous study in Malaysia, increasing total area planted have negative implication towards palm oil production. This thesis examines the relationship between total area planted, palm oil price and palm oil production in Indonesia using quantitative approach with annual data of Indonesian total area planted, palm oil price and production from 1980 to 2014. The data obtained from Directorate-General of Plantation. The model used in this research is vector error correction model. Four stages of analyses which are involved are stationerity test, Johansen cointegration test, VECM and Granger causality. The findings showed that total area planted and palm oil price have positive effect on palm oil production in the long run. In the short run, total area planted and palm oil price have negative impact on palm oil production. Granger Causality shown that total area planted triggers production and production triggers price. For future studies, researcher recommends to include other related variables such as palm oil export, palm oil world price and substitute price."

"The endogeneity of Oil Price Shocks and Their Effect of Indonesia : A structural Vector Autoregression Model. In the paper the endogeneity of oil price shocks as well as the effects of different type of the shocks on the Indonesian economy represented by its gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and real effective exchage rate (REER) were investigated. A structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was constructed extending Killian (2009) model by employing several lags constrains in the model as Indonesia is a small open economy. There was evidence that oil proce shocks were endogenously formed by oil-spesific-demand itself, aggregate global demand and fraction of oil stock. The exports' effect convincingly existed in the oil price shocks influencing the economy of Indonesia. In addition, there was no evidence that Indonesia enjoyed benefits from being an OPEC member. "