Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"This study aims at investigating the behavior of foreign exchange rate markets in Indonesia using 1350 daily observations. Another objective of this study is to examine the structural stability due to Bali bombing chapter I and II

---

."

"Fokus dari penelitian ini adalah meneliti dan menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap impor kapas di Indonesia. Selain itu pengaruh faktor-faktor lain seperti pendapatan domestik, harga relatif turut digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Analisa pengaruh variabel nilai tukar dan variabel pendapatan domestik, harga relatif terhadap impor kapas di Indonesia menggunakan metode kointegrasi dan error correction model. Data yang dipergunakan untuk analisis dalam tesis ini adalah data sekunder, yang merupakan data time series kuartalan dari 1990: QI sampai 2006: Q2.Pengujian model pada jangka panjang menghasilkan signifikansi pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap impor kapas Indonesia. Variabel pendapatan domestik dan harga relatif juga menunjukkan signifikansi pengaruh terhadap impor kapas Indonesia. Untuk pengujian model pada jangka pendek menghasilkan signifikansi pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap impor kapas Indonesia. Selain itu pada jangka pendek permintaan kapas periode sebelumnya, pendapatan riil, harga relatif dua periode sebelumnya juga menunjukkan signifikansi terhadap impor kapas.

---

The Focus of this research is to research and analyze how the impact of exchange rate on Indonesia's cotton import. Meanwhile, the other factors, i.e. domestic income, relative price are also used in this research. Analysis of the impact of variables, i.e. variable of exchange rate, variable of domestic income on Indonesia's cotton imports uses co integration method and error correction model. Data which is used in this research is secondary data which is time series data with quarterly data from 1990: Q1 until 2006:Q2.In the long term of model examination, variable of exchange rate significantly influences Indonesia's cotton import. Meanwhile, variable of domestic income and relative price also significantly inflence Indonesia's cotton imports. In the short term, the variable of exchange rate significantly influences Indonesia's cotton imports. Meanwhile some variables, i.e. variables of demand for cotton which is period is a quarter before, variables of real income, variable of relative price which is periods is two quarter before also significantly influence Indonesia's cotton import."

"Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) adalah sebuah perusabaan mobil multinasional dan merupakan salah satu perusahaan yang terkemuka di Jepang. TMC dibagi dalam beberapa unit bisnis yang salah satunya adalah Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TTC). Operasional TTC dibagi menjadi 6 (enam) divisi, salah satunya adalah divisi Consumer Product, Services & Material. Divisi ini memiliki anak perusahaan yang beroperasi di Indonesia yang Tomenbo Indonesia (TMB). TMB merupakan perusabaan manufaktur yang memproduksi benang sintetik untuk permintaan dalam dan luar negeri.TMB memiliki translation exposure yang timbul karena konsolidasi laporan keuangan TMB (dalam USD) ke dalam laporan keuangan TTC (JPY). Fluktuasi nilai tukar USD terhadap JPY yang terjadi menyebabkan adanya perbedaan nilai asset dan kewajiban TMB ketika dikonsolidasikan dalam laporan keuangan TTC sehingga menimbulkan kerugian atau keuntungan yang timbul ketika salah satu mata uang menguat atau melemah. Selain itu, TMB juga memiliki operating exposure yang timbul karena arus kas masuk seluruhnya dalam USD sedangkan memiliki arus kas keluar tahun 2003-2007 berupa USD dan IDR. Karena proporsi arus kas keluar dalam IDR yang terekspos ini cukup besar, fluktuasi IDR terhadap USD ini akan mempengaruhi posisi kompetitif TMB di pasar domestik maupun internasional ketika salah satu mata uang tersebut melemah atau menguat. Fluktuasi IDR terhadap USD dan USD terhadap JPY dalam lima tahun terakhir cukup berfluktuasi, karena itu diperlukan strategi hedging yang tepat untuk meminimalkan operating exposure dan translation esposure Penelitian ini tidak membahas mengenai risiko fluktuasi nilai tukar yang timbul akibat transaksi (transaction exposure) karena perusahaan tidak memiliki transaction exposure. Tujuan karya akhir ini adalah untuk mengukur dan mengetahui pengelolaan exposure dan translation exposure TMB

---

Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) is a multinational company and is one of the leading companies in Japan. TMC is divided into several business units, one of which is Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TTC). TTC's operations are divided into 6 (six) divisions, one of which is the Consumer Product, Services & Materials division. This division has a subsidiary operating in Indonesia which is Tomenbo Indonesia (TMB). TMB is a manufacturing company that produces synthetic yarn for domestic and foreign demand.

TMB has translation exposure arising from the consolidation of TMB's financial statements (in USD) into TTC's (JPY) financial statements. Fluctuations in the exchange rate of USD against JPY that occur cause differences in the value of TMB's assets and liabilities which are consolidated in TTC's financial statements, resulting in losses or gains that arise when one currency strengthens or weakens.

In addition, TMB also has operating exposure that arises because the cash inflows are entirely in USD, while the cash outflows for 2003-2007 are in USD and IDR. Because the proportion of cash flows in IDR exposed is quite large, fluctuations in IDR against USD will affect TMB's competitive position in the domestic and international markets when one of these currencies weakens or strengthens. The fluctuation of IDR against USD and USD against JPY in the last five years is quite fluctuating, therefore an appropriate hedging strategy is needed to carry out exposure and translation exposure. The purpose of this final paper is to measure and determine the management of exposure and translation of TMB exposure."

"ABSTRACTSkripsi ini menganalisa metode machine learning menggunakan HiddenMarkov Model (HMM), yang merupakan alat prediksi stochastic dan probabilitidigunakan untuk mengevaluasi gerakan di dalam pasar valuta asing. Skripsi inimembahas khususnya penerapan metode HMM di pasar valuta asing sebagai alatuntuk memprediksi pergerakan dan hasil dari nilai tukar di dalam pasar, kemudianmenganalisis data yang tersedia, dan akhirnya membuat keputusan berdasarkanhasil yang diperoleh. Data yang digunakan adalah data harga penutupan padapasar valuta asing AUD/USD dalam dua jangka waktu yang berbeda, hargapenutupan per 1 jam dan per 15 menit, dan data yang digunakan diperoleh daribeberapa sumber online. Analisis awal menunjukkan beberapa faktor eksternaldapat mempengaruhi keakuratan hasil. Hasilnya mengindikasi, dengan tidakmemperhitungkan factor-faktor luar lainnya, akurasi yang lebih baik didapatsewaktu menggunakan haraga penutupan jangka waktu yang lebih pendek.

---

ABSTRACTThis bachelor thesis analyses the method of machine learning usingHidden Markov Model, which is a predictive stochastic and probability tool inorder to evaluate the movement inside the foreign exchange market. This paperdiscusses particularly the application of HMM method in the forex (foreignexchange) market, as the tool for forecasting the movement and the outcome ofthe exchange rate inside the market, analyses them, and finally making a decisionbasing on the obtained outcomes. The data used are the closing price of theAUD/USD forex market in two different timeframes, per hour closing price andper 15 minutes closing price, and was obtained from several online foreignexchange sources. Initial analysis suggests several external factors may affect theaccuracy of the results. The results indicate, excluding any external factors, betteraccuracy was obtained when shorter closing price timeframe was used."

"Penelitian ini berusaha meneliti efisiensi pasar valuta asing Indonesia setelah mereformasi rezim nilai tukarnya menjadi nilai tukar mengambang. Data nilai tukar yang digunakan untuk makalah ini adalah nilai tukar rupiah (Rp) terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (USD), rupiah terhadap yen Jepang (JPY), dan rupiah terhadap won Korea Selatan (KRW) sejak Januari 2000 sampai dengan November 2012, dimana Indonesia pada 14 Agustus 1997 merubah rezim nilai tukarnya yang semula berupa rezim managed floating regime menjadi free floating regime. Penelitian ini menguji efisiensi pasar valuta asing bentuk lemah (weak form), dengan menggunakan Unit Root Test, dan regresi dengan pendekatan Efficient Market Hypothesis. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga mencoba menguji dengan menggunakan pendekatan paritas suku bunga baik terbuka maupun tertutup. Hasil yang di dapat bahwa pasar valuta asing Indonesia telah efisien bentuk lemah. Namun, jika ditinjau dengan pendekatan paritas suku bunga, pasar valuta asing Indonesia belum efisien.

---

This study sought to assess the efficiency of Indonesia's foreign exchange market after the reform of its exchange rate regime to a floating exchange rate. Data exchange rates used for this paper is the rupiah (IDR) against the U.S. dollar (USD), the rupiah against the Japanese yen (JPY), and the rupiah against the South Korean won (KRW) from January 2000 to November 2012, where Indonesia on August 14, 1997 to change its exchange rate regime which was originally a regime of managed floating regime became free floating regime. This study examined the efficiency of the foreign exchange market is weak form (weak form), by using the Unit Root Test, and regression to the Efficient Market Hypothesis approach. In addition, this study also attempted to examine the use of interest rate parity approach either open or closed. The result shows that the Indonesian foreign exchange market has been weak form efficient. However, if the review with interest rate parity approach, Indonesia's foreign exchange market has not been efficient."

"[Penelitian ini menguji validitas teori Purchasing Power Parity di Indonesia dengan lima mitra dagang terpilih dengan menggunakan data berfrekuensi bulanan. Pengujian dilakukan dengan metode kointegrasi Engle-Granger kemudian apabila terbukti terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara nilai tukar dan tingkat harga antara Indonesia dan mitra dagangnya maka selanjutnya dibentuk model koreksi kesalahan untuk melihat dinamika jangka pendeknya. Hasil peneltian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi pada kasus Indonesia-AS, Indonesia-Inggris dan Indonesia-Jepang pada periode Januari 2000-Januari 2015. Sedangkan pada jangka pendek kondisi PPP tidak berlaku, karena banyak faktor lain yang menjelaskan perubahan pada nilai tukar selain tingkat harga, dan karena tingkat harga pada jangka pendek cenderung bergerak lebih lambat dibandingkan nilai tukar.;This research aims to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity theory in Indonesia with five selected trading partners, using monthly data. Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to know whether there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia and its trade partner?s exchange rate and price level, and if cointegration relation existed then the error correction model will be formed in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the variables. The result shows that there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia-US and Indonesia-UK and Indonesia-Japan in the long-run but no PPP relation in the short-run. This result explains that there are other factors that define the movement of exchange rate in the short run other than the price level, and the price level moves slower than the exchange rate.;This research aims to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity theory in Indonesia with five selected trading partners, using monthly data. Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to know whether there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia and its trade partner?s exchange rate and price level, and if cointegration relation existed then the error correction model will be formed in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the variables. The result shows that there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia-US and Indonesia-UK and Indonesia-Japan in the long-run but no PPP relation in the short-run. This result explains that there are other factors that define the movement of exchange rate in the short run other than the price level, and the price level moves slower than the exchange rate., This research aims to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity theory in Indonesia with five selected trading partners, using monthly data. Engle-Granger cointegration test is used to know whether there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia and its trade partner’s exchange rate and price level, and if cointegration relation existed then the error correction model will be formed in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the variables. The result shows that there is a cointegrating relation between Indonesia-US and Indonesia-UK and Indonesia-Japan in the long-run but no PPP relation in the short-run. This result explains that there are other factors that define the movement of exchange rate in the short run other than the price level, and the price level moves slower than the exchange rate.]"