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Hasil Pencarian

Ditemukan 21701 dokumen yang sesuai dengan query
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Andris Rachardi
"Saat ini penyakit jantung koroner merupakan salah satu penyebab kematian utama di dunia, termasuk di Indonesia. Penyakit jantung koroner adalah salah satu penyakit kardiovaskuler, yaitu masalah gangguan pada jantung dan pembuluh darah. Dampaknya peredaran darah menuju jantung menjadi tidak lancar dan hal ini mengakibatkan penurunan pasokan oksigen ke jantung. Seseorang dapat menderita penyakit jantung koroner karena beberapa faktor risiko antara lain merokok, diabetes dan hipertensi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan prediksi akurat untuk menentukan apakah seseorang termasuk kategori menderita penyakit jantung koroner berdasarkan faktor – faktor risikonya. Dalam bidang asuransi jika prediksinya cukup akurat maka perusahaan asuransi dapat menyiapkan jenis polis yang tepat untuk calon pemilik polis, terutama bagi calon pemilik polis yang memiliki faktor risiko. Model Bayesian Neural Networks digunakan untuk memprediksi penyakit jantung koroner berdasarkan medical record yang terdiri atas faktor – faktor risiko. Tahap pertama adalah pemilihan model, yaitu membangun model neural networks yang optimal dengan inferensi Bayesian (Bayesian inference) dan metode aproksimasi inferensi variasi (variational inference). Tahap selanjutnya adalah evaluasi model dengan mengukur akurasi hasil prediksi menggunakan matriks confusion, tingkat akurasi (success rate), tingkat precision dan tingkat recall. Model yang diperoleh kemudian dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi penyakit jantung koroner.

Coronary heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world currently, including in Indonesia. By the definition, coronary heart disease is a cardiovascular disease which is a problem of disorders of the heart and blood vessels. The impact is the flow of blood circulation to the heart is faltered. As the result, the supply of oxygen to the heart decreases. Someone can suffer from coronary heart disease due to several risk factors including smoking, diabetes and hypertension. Therefore, an accurate predictions is required to determine whether people are categorized as suffering from coronary heart disease according to their risk factors. In the insurance field if the predictions are accurate enough, the insurance company can prepare the right type of policy for prospective policyholders, particularly for those prospective policyholders who have those risk factors. The Bayesian Neural Networks model is used to predict coronary heart disease according to a medical record that consisting of risk factors. The first stage is model selection, which is building an optimal neural network model with Bayesian inference and the variational inference approximation method. Furthermore, the next stage is model evaluation by measuring the accuracy of the predicted results with the confusion matrix, the accuracy rate (success rate), the level of precision and the level of recall. Then the trained neural network model will be used to predict new data observation."
Depok: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Indonesia, 2020
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UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Minto Basuki
"The shipbuilding industry is characterized by high-risk business activities; therefore, caution should be taken in its operational processes. From upstream to downstream, the shipbuilding industry depends on other industries. In this study, a risk assessment was conducted on the construction of new vessels using the Bayesian network approach; accordingly, the risk assessment was carried out using a probabilistic value at risk (VaR). The study was carried out by PT PAL Indonesia in association with the construction of a new tanker ship (building production codes M271 and M272). An analysis was conducted on three main components of new vessel construction—design components, material and production components, and subcomponents of the previous two components. From the study, we could conclude that the probability of delay for new vessel construction caused by design delay is 0.05; the probability of delay caused by material delay is 0.65; and the probability of delay caused by production delay is 0.3. For delays caused by design factors, a yard plan is the sub-component that contributes predominantly to delays (i.e., probability of 0.3). For delays caused by material factors, the sub-component with the greatest impact is hull and machinery outfitting, with a probability of 0.3. For delays caused by production factors, the sub-component with the biggest impact is hull construction, with a probability of 0.39. Thus, we could conclude that a project delay would occur if the material component and the hull construction sub-components were not handled properly."
Depok: Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, 2014
UI-IJTECH 5:1 (2014)
Artikel Jurnal  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Margaretha
"Distribusi Exponentiated Exponential (EE) adalah pengembangan dari distribusi Exponential dengan cara menambahkan sebuah parameter bentuk alpha. Distribusi ini digunakan untuk mengatasi masalah ketidakfleksibilitas dari distribusi Exponential. Untuk melakukan inferensi mengenai permasalahan yang dimodelkan dengan distribusi EE, perlu dilakukan penaksiran parameter. Pada skripsi ini akan dibahas mengenai penaksiran parameter distribusi dari distribusi Exponentiated Exponential pada data tersensor kiri menggunakan metode Bayesian. Prosedur penaksiran meliputi penentuan distribusi prior yaitu digunakan distribusi prior konjugat, pembentukan fungsi likelihood dari data tersensor kiri, dan pembentukan distribusi posterior. Penaksir Bayes kemudian diperoleh dengan cara meminimumkan risiko posterior berdasarkan fungsi loss Squared Error Loss Function (SELF) dan Precautionary Loss Function (PLF). Kemudian setelah diperoleh perumusan penaksir Bayes, simulasi data dilakukan untuk membandingkan hasil taksiran parameter menggunakan fungsi loss SELF dan PLF yang dilihat dari nilai Mean Square Error (MSE) yang dihasilkan. Fungsi loss dikatakan lebih efektif digunakan dalam merumuskan penaksir Bayes apabila penaksir Bayes yang diperoleh menghasilkan nilai MSE yang lebih kecil. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, fungsi loss PLF lebih efektif digunakan untuk alpha≤1, sedangkan fungsi loss SELF lebih efektif digunakan untuk alpha>1.

Exponentiated Exponential (EE) distribution is the development of Exponential Distribution by adding alpha as a shape parameter. This distribution can solve unflexibility issue in Exponential distribution. In order to make inferences about any cases modeled with EE distribution, parameter estimation is required. This thesis will discuss about parameter estimation of Exponentiated Exponential distribution for left censored data using Bayesian method. Parameter estimation procedure are selection of prior distribution which is conjugate prior, likelihood construction for left censored data, and then forming posterior distribution. Bayes estimator can be obtained by minimize posterior risk based on Squared Error Loss Function (SELF) and Precautionary Loss Function (PLF). After Bayes estimator is obtained, simulation is done to compare the results of Bayes estimator using SELF and PLF which are seen from the result of Mean Square Error (MSE). Loss function is said to be more effective to obtain Bayes estimator if the resulting Bayes estimator yield smaller MSE. Based on simulation, PLF more effective for alpha ≤ 1, while SELF more effective for alpha>1."
Depok: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Indonesia, 2019
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UI - Skripsi Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Carlin, Bradley P.
London: Taylor & Francis Group, 2009
519.542 CAR b
Buku Teks SO  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Lindley, D.V.
"A study of those statistical ideas that use a probability distribution over parameter space. The first part describes the axiomatic basis in the concept of coherence and the implications of this for sampling theory statistics. The second part discusses the use of Bayesian ideas in many branches of statistics."
Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1995
e20451236
eBooks  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Bulan Firdanisa
"Penelitian bioinformatika sering diterapkan untuk mempelajari penyakit dalam tubuh manusia. Penelitian yang sampai saat ini masih aktif dilakukan ialah penelitian terhadap pasien penderita kanker. Tujuan dari berbagai penelitian ini yaitu untuk menemukan pengobatan terbaik bagi pasien penderita kanker. Salah satu pengobatan yang baru ini muncul dikenal sebagai imunoterapi. Imunoterapi memungkinkan sel-sel imun tubuh kita sendiri digunakan untuk melawan sel-sel kanker. Instrumen utama dalam penelitian terhadap efektifitas imunoterapi juga kasus bioinformatika lainnya ialah data ekspresi gen. Namun, pada data ekspresi gen seringkali ditemukan nilai yang hilang atau missing values yang biasanya disebabkan oleh kerusakan gambar atau kesalahan dalam proses hibridisasi. Keberadaan missing values pada data ekspresi gen dapat menyebabkan kesulitan pada analisis lebih lanjut, di mana banyak analisis ekspresi gen memerlukan data yang lengkap seperti klasifikasi dan pengelompokan. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan imputasi terhadap missing values agar analisis yang dilakukan dapat lebih akurat. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan imputasi menggunakan metode Bi-BPCA. Bi-BPCA merupakan metode imputasi dengan mengombinasikan analisis biclustering dan imputasi BPCA. Metode Bi-BPCA diterapkan pada data ekspresi gen di sekitar kanker setelah dilakukan imunoterapi. Setelah itu, performa dari metode Bi-BPCA dilihat dengan membandingkan hasil imputasi metode Bi-BPCA dengan metode imputasi lainnya diantaranya imputasi menggunakan rata-rata baris, rata-rata kolom, dan metode imputasi BPCA melalui nilai NRMSE. Selain itu, koefisien korelasi Pearson digunakan untuk menghitung korelasi antara nilai hasil imputasi metode Bi-BPCA dengan nilai aslinya. Berdasarkan penelitian ini metode Bi-BPCA menghasilkan NRMSE kurang dari 0.6 untuk missing rate 1-30%, lebih rendah dibandingkan NRMSE dari metode imputasi lainnya. Kemudian, metode Bi-BPCA menghasilkan nilai koefisien korelasi Pearson mayoritas di atas 0.9 mendekati 1. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Bi-BPCA menghasilkan nilai imputasi yang lebih baik untuk menggantikan missing values dibandingkan dengan metode imputasi BPCA, rata-rata kolom, dan rata-rata baris.

Bioinformatics research is often applied to study diseases in the human body. Research that is still actively being carried out is research on cancer patients. The aim of those studies is to find the best treatment for cancer patients. One treatment that has recently emerged is known as immunotherapy. Immunotherapy allows our body's own immune cells to be used to fight cancer cells. The main instrument in research on the effectiveness of immunotherapy as well as other cases of bioinformatics is gene expression data.. However, in gene expression data, it is often found missing values which are usually caused by image defects and errors in the hybridization process. The existence of missing values in gene expression data can cause difficulties in further analysis, where many analysis of gene expression requires complete data such as classification and clustering. Therefore, it is necessary to impute the missing values so that the analysis can be carried out more accurately. In this study, imputation was carried out using the Bi-BPCA method. Bi-BPCA is an imputation method by combining biclustering analysis and BPCA imputation. The Bi-BPCA method was applied to gene expression data around cancer after immunotherapy. After that, the performance of the Bi-BPCA method was seen by comparing the imputation results of the Bi-BPCA method with other imputation methods including imputation using row averages, column averages, and the BPCA imputation method through the NRMSE value. In addition, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to calculate the correlation between the imputed value of the Bi-BPCA method and the original value. Based on this study, the Bi-BPCA method produces NRMSE values less than 0.6 for missing rates 1 to 30 percent, which is lower than NRMSE from other imputation methods. In addition, the Bi-BPCA method produces in a majority Pearson correlation coefficient above 0.9. These results indicate that the Bi-BPCA method produces better imputation values to replace the missing values."
Depok: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Indonesia, 2021
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UI - Skripsi Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Setia Gunawan Wijaya
"Scan statistic merupakan suatu analisis untuk mendeteksi daerah yang merupakan kejadian luar biasa atau KLB (outbreak). Salah satu metode yang mendasari analisis scan statistic adalah metode Bayesian Scan Statistic. Metode ini menerapkan prinsip teorema bayesian, yaitu memanfaatkan informasi prior untuk menghasilkan informasi posterior yang dapat memperbaiki informasi prior. Metode Bayesian Scan Statistic memilih keadaan atau kondisi yang memiliki posterior probability yang terbesar sebagai daerah KLB-nya. Fungsi marginal likelihood dan prior probability merupakan dua komponen penting yang digunakan dalam metode ini untuk menghitung posterior probability untuk tiap-tiap daerah. Fungsi marginal likelihood didapat dari data historis dan modelnya merupakan gabungan antara distribusi poisson dan distribusi gamma. Sedangan untuk prior probability juga didapat dari data historis atau berdasarkan pada pengalaman seseorang. Metode bayesian scan statistic ini dapat digunakan jika terdapat data masa lalu. Kata kunci : bayesian scan statistic, bayesian cluster detection, prior probability, posterior probability. x + 54 hlm. ; gamb. ; lamp. ; tab. Bibliografi : 9 (1986-2006)"
Depok: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Indonesia, 2007
S27733
UI - Skripsi Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Befriko Saparindra Murdianto
"ABSTRACT
Subsurface models of lithology are often poorly constrained due to the lack of
dense well control. Although limited in vertical resolution, high-quality threedimensional
(3-D) seismic data usually provide valuable information regarding
the lateral variations of lithology. In this thesis, I will show how Bayesian
approach can be used to generate seismically constrained models of
lithology. Unlike cokriging-based simulation methods, this method does not
rely on a generalized linear regression model, which is inadequate when
combining discrete variables, such as lithology indicator; and continuous
variables, such as seismic attributes. This method uses a Bayesian updating
rule to construct a posterior probability distribution function of lithoclasses by
using a priori information from well data and the seismic likelihood to constrain
the 3-D geological scenarios produced by geostatistical technique, which is
then sampled sequentially at all points in space to generate a set of
realizations. The realizations define alternative, equiprobable lithologic
models. The methodology was applied to delineate productive reservoir zone
in Boonsville, Texas. To achieve better result in the Bayesian Sequential
Indicator Simulation, I used acoustic impedance obtained from a seismic
inversion process as the attribute to constrain the simulation. It is expected
that by using this attribute, the separation of the litho-class conditional
distribution will be well defined and at the same time minimizing the overlaps
between the two distributions. The lithology classification obtained from BSIS
is then integrated with the result of the seismic inversion to clearly delineate
the productive zone in the field."
2007
T21196
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Siti Salma Hasanah
"ABSTRACT
Model hurdle adalah model alternatif untuk mengatasi penyebaran berlebihan (varians datanya adalah lebih tinggi dari nilai rata-rata) yang disebabkan oleh kelebihan nol. Model rintangan dapat memodelkan secara terpisah variabel respons yang memiliki nilai nol dan positif, melibatkan dua proses yang berbeda. Proses pertama adalah proses biner yang menentukan apakah variabel respon memiliki nilai nol atau nilai positif, dan dapat dimodelkan dengan biner model, menggunakan regresi logistik. Untuk variabel respons positif, kemudian lanjutkan ke proses kedua, yaitu proses yang hanya mengamati jumlah positif. Yang positif count dapat dimodelkan dengan model Zero-Truncated menggunakan regresi Poisson. Rintangan model juga dikenal sebagai model dua bagian. Estimasi parameter menggunakan Bayesian metode. Kombinasi informasi sebelumnya dengan informasi dari data yang diamati membentuk distribusi posterior yang digunakan untuk memperkirakan parameter. Distribusi posterior bentuk yang diperoleh tidak tertutup, sehingga diperlukan teknik komputasi, yaitu Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) dengan algoritma Gibbs Sampling. Metode ini diterapkan
ke data Parkinson untuk memodelkan frekuensi komplikasi motorik pada 300 Parkinsonpasien. Data tersebut digunakan dari Parkinson's Progressive Markers Initiative (PPMI, 2018). Hasil yang diperoleh adalah MDS-UPDRS (Movement Disorder Society-Unified Skala Peringkat Penyakit Parkinson) bagian 1, MDS-UPDRS bagian 2, dan MDS-UPDRS bagian 3 terkait secara signifikan MDS-UPDRS bagian 4 di kedua tahap.

ABSTRACT
The obstacle model is an alternative model for overcoming excessive spread (the data variant is higher than the average value) which is questioned by zero excess. The obstacle model can separately model response variables that have zero and positive values, involving two different processes. The first process is a binary process that determines whether the response variable has a zero value or a positive value, and can be modeled with a binary model, using logistic regression. For positive response variables, then proceed to the second process, which is a process that is only positive. The positive one calculated can be modeled with a Zero-Truncated model using Poisson regression. The Obstacle Model is also known as the two part model. Parameter estimation using the Bayesian method. The combination of previous information with information from data collected collects the distributions used for parameter estimation. The posterior distribution of the obtained form is not closed, computational techniques are needed, namely Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with Gibbs Sampling algorithm. This method is applied to Parkinson's data to model the frequency of motor complications in 300 Parkinson's patients. The data is used from Parkinson's Progressive Markers Initiative (PPMI, 2018). The results obtained are MDS-UPDRS (Movement Disorder-Community Parkinson's Disease Assessment Scale) part 1, MDS-UPDRS part 2, and MDS-UPDRS part 3 which significantly related MDS-UPDRS part 4 in both glasses.
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2019
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UI - Skripsi Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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