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"The 1997-1999 currency crises series was a major shock to Indonesian economy. The crises had damaged Indonesian economy, since economic growth declined sharply and Indonesian banking system was in collapse. Should the monetary authority and business practitioners anticipated the currency crises, the social loss caused by it could be reduced. Learning from past mistakes, an early warning system to predict the possibility of currency crises occurrence in the near future is needed.This study applies the leading indicator approach to construct early warning system of currency crisis for Indonesia, both by using individual and composite leading indicators. A currency crises in this study is defined as any observation of exchange market pressure {EMI') over EMPs mean plus one time of EMPs standard deviation. Meanwhile, the threshold level for indicator's signal issuance is set to leave 20% best observations. Each indicator's performance is measured by using three criteria: (I) percentage of correctly called crises; (2) adjusted noise to signal ratio; and (3) probability of crisis following a signal.Results from this study show that there are five best individual indicators that can fulfil all of the criteria: (1) Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend value; (2) Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth; (3) financial account surplus; (4) base money growth; and (5) financial account surplus to GDP ratio. From the best individual indicators, 17 best composite indicators can be constructed. The first best composite indicator is the "VW', which is a direct combination of "Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend" and "Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth"."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak pengumuman kebijakan devaluasi mata uang Yuan (Tiongkok) yang dilakukan oleh People's Bank of China (PBoC) atau Bank Sentral Tiongkok yang diumumkan pada tanggal 11 Agustus 2015 terhadap abnormal return saham dan dampaknya pada setiap sektor industri dari 9 (sembilan) sektor yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode event study yang terdiri dari 133 estimation period dan 31 hari event period atau event window (t-15, t=0, dan t+15). Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa pertama, tidak terdapat abnormal return yang signifikan pada hari pengumuman devaluasi mata uang Yuan (Tiongkok), kedua terdapat abnormal return yang heterogen pada setiap sektor industri dari 9 (sembilan) sektor yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukan bahwa signifikansi hanya terdapat pada sektor Trade & Service t = 0 atau pada saat hari terjadi pengumuman devaluasi mata uang Yuan (Tiongkok).

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This study aims at analyzing the impact of policy announcements devaluation of the Yuan (China) currency conducted by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), or the Central Bank of China, which was announced on August 11, 2015 on the abnormal stock return and its impact on each of the 9 (nine) sectors of the industry listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study uses event study consisted of 133 estimation period and 31-day event or event window period (t-15, t = 0 and t + 15). The research found that first, there is no significant abnormal returns on the announcement day of the devaluation of the Yuan (China), Secondly there is a heterogeneous abnormal return in each of 9 the (nine) sectors listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results also showed that they are only significant in the Trade & Service sector t = 0 or on the announcement day of the devaluation of Yuan (China) currency."