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"PT Adaro Energy Tbk went public on July 16, 2008 with its share price valued at IDR1,100 per share. Many brokers, stock investors and stock analysts thought that the IPO share price is below its potential and concluded that it was a good investment at that time. This thesis try to calculate the value of the IPO share price based on Discounted Cash Flow and Price Earnings Multiple Model to determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued. The data used in this stock valuation are obtained from several sources including, but not limited to, PT Adaro Energy Tbk?s audited reports year 2005, 2006 and 2007, due diligence meeting and public expose, IDX monthly statistics and other sources found on the internet. The Discounted Cash Flow and Price Earnings Multiple Model both show different results. However both valuations did value the IPO share price above IDR1,100 per share. This concluded that the IPO share price is undervalued at that time."

"Penelitian dalam karya akhir ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis fundamental Top-down Approach yang diawali dengan melakukan analisis indikator makro ekonomi, analisis industri dimana perusahaan itu berada, dan analisis perusahan itu sendiri. Berdasarkan hasil analisis fundamental dengan metode Free Cash Flow lo Equity diperoleh nilai intrinsik harga saham sebesar Rp 1.675,-. Penilaian tersebut menggunakan asumsi-asumsi tertentu dan reguired risk of return sebesar 17,42%. Dengan demikian, harga saham perhitungan analisis fundamental sebesar Rp 1.675,- berada dialas harga saham yang ditawarakan pada saat IPO sebesar Rp 1.080,- atau harga IPO undervalued harga analisis fundamental. Sementara itu, berdasarkan analisis dan perbandingan rasio PER dan rasio PBV menunjukkan bahwa kedua rasio lebih rendah dibanding rasio rata-rata industri sektor keuangan. Keputusan emiten dan penjamin menawarakan harga saham pada saat IPO dibawah nilai harga intrinsiknya (undervahted) berharap penawaran haraga saham tersebut diminati investor sehingga jumlah saham yang ditawarkan dapat terjual seluruhnya. Sementara itu, dari sisi investor harga yang saham yang rendah tersebut diharapkan mengalami kenaikan pada saat saham diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder harganya mendekati keseimbangan.

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The research in this thesis has been designed using a fundamental analytical approach, Top-down Approach, which started by conducting a macroeconomic indicator analysis, industrial analysis, and company analysis. By implementing the free cash flow to equity model, the assumptions of intrinsic shares price valuation have been determined. Based on fundamental analysis using the Free Cash Flow to Equity method, the result shows that the intrinsic shares price value is Rp 1,675,-. This valuation uses particular assumptions and required risk of retum of 17.42%. As a result, the shares price based on fundamental analysis calculation is Rp 1,675,-, above the IPO shares price of Rp 1,080,- which means that the IPO price is undervalued compared to its fundamental analysis price. In addition, based on analysis and comparison of PER ratio and PBV ratio the result shows that both ratios are lower than the ratio of average LQ45 Banking. The decision of issuer and underwriter to offer the IPO shares price lower than its intrinsic price (undervalued) was based on the expectation that the offering shares price will be attractive to the investors and all shares will be sold out. On the other hand, the investors expect that the shares price will rise to its equilibrium level when shares are traded in the secondary market and creates gain to the investors."

"Perhitungan nilai wajar sebuah saham sangat diperlukan bagi investor sebagai panduan dalam melakukan investasi agar memberikan imbal hasil yang maksimal dan mengurangi risiko dalam berinvestasi. Salah satu cara dalam menilai harga wajar sebuah saham yaitu dengan melakukan analisis fundamental. Berdasar hasil perhitungan menggunakan metode FCFE dengan tiga skenario, nilai wajar saham PTBA adalah Rp40.606, Rp29.425, dan Rp21.455. Sedangkan pada penutupan tahun 2010, nilai PTBA adalah Rp22.650. Nilai wajar ADRO adalah Rp2.278, Rp1.658, dan Rp1.212. Sedangkan pada penutupan tahun 2010, nilai ADRO adalah Rp 2.525. Perhitungan dengan relative valuation dengan pendekatan P/ER menujukkan rata-rata-P/ER industri adalah 33 kali sedangkan P/ER PTBA dan ADRO masing-masing adalah 26 kali dan 36,6 kali. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai PTBA dan ADRO berturut-turut undervalued dan overvalued, hal ini konsisten dengan perhitungan menggunakan metode P/ER yang menunjukkan hasil yang sama. Sementara itu, penilaian menggunakan P/ER matriks menunjukkan kedua saham berada pada area harga wajar dan masih layak untuk dibeli disebabkan adanya kemungkinan kenaikan harga saham dimasa depan.

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Precise analysis of real value of company?s stock price is needed by investor before taking an investment decision in order to maximize benefits and minimize risk. One of the tools to do this is by using fundamental analysis.

Based on calculation with FCFE model with three scenarios, fair value of PTBA is Rp30,285, Rp29,425, and Rp15,996. While PTBA?s closing price in 2010 is Rp 22,650. Fair value of ADRO is Rp2,278, Rp1,658, and Rp1,212. While ADRO?s closing price in 2010 is Rp 2,525.

Calculation with P/ER approach shows that industry P/ER is 33 times, while P/ER of PTBA and ADRO consecutively is 26 and 36.6 times. These calculation show that market share price of PTBA is overvalued while ADRO is undervalued. This calculation is consistent with result of P/ER approach that shows the same conclusion.

Valuation with P/ER matrix shows that both of shares still in the fair price are and are still worht to buy since there are oportunities in future price increase. "

"Valuasi dilakukan untuk menghitung nilai perusahaan. Hasil dari valuasi dapat digunakan dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Karya akhir ini membahas empat metode dalam melakukan valuasi PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), yaitu Discounted Free Cash Flow, Dividend Discount, Price Earning Multiplier dan EV Reserve Multiplier dengan pendekatan topdown. Masing - masing pendekatan mempunyai dasar dan asumsi yang berbeda - beda, sehingga hasil yang didapat dapat berbeda, karenanya diperlukan analisa lebih lanjut dan justifikasi dalam mengambil keputusan investasi.

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Valuation is conducted to calculate the company's intrinsic value. Results of valuation can be used in making investment decisions. This thesis discusses four methods of valuation PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), namely, Discounted Free Cash Flow, Dividend Discount, Price Earning Multiplier and Reserve Multiplier EV with top-down approach. Every model has a different basis and assumptions, so the results obtained can be different, hence require further analysis and justification before taking investment decisions."

"Tesis ini membahas tentang valuasi terhadap nilai perusahaan PLN Batam dengan menggunakan metode discounted free cash flow. Langkah-langkah dalam valuasi dimulai dengan melakukan pemahaman sisi historis perusahaan, analisis laporan keuangan, proyeksi laporan keuangan, sampai kepada perhitungan nilai saham perusahaan. Proyeksi arus kas di buat selama sepuluh tahun dengan mempertimbangkan laporan keuangan historis, strategi perusahaan, serta pengaruh faktor-faktor eksternal melalui kondisi ekonomi makro maupun kondisi industri. Berdasarkan hasil valuasi PLN Batam, didapat nilai wajar per lembar saham sebesar Rp. 2.392 dengan metode free cash flow to equity (FCFE) dan Rp. 6.647 dengan metode free cash flow to the firm (FCFF).

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This thesis examines a valuation of PLN Batam using the Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) method. The DCF valuation steps include understanding the historical aspects of the company, analysing past financial statements, generating financial projections, and calculating the firm value. The cash flow projection is based on historical financial statements compiled over 10 years, corporate strategies, and external factors such as the economy and power service industry conditions. Using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) valuation method we obtained a price per share Rp 2.392 whilst with the Free Cash Flow to Firm method we obtained a price per share Rp 6.647. These price per share could be used as references to assess the value of PLN Batam?s shares on the initial pubic offering."

"Sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi diperlukan analisis yang tepat agar dapat memberikan keuntungan yang optimal dan mengurangi risiko yang ada. Salah satu analisis yang bisa dilakukan adalah analisis fundamental untuk mencari nilai wajar dari suatu saham yang dapat digunakan sebagai dasar dalam membuat keputusan investasi baik membeli, menahan atau menjual saham. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan valuasi saham menggunakan metode Free Cash to Equity, harga saham ADRO undervalued dengan nilai wajar menurut skenario optimis Rp 2.146 dan skenario pesimis Rp 1.930 sementara harga saham ADRO per tanggal 30 September 2011 adalah Rp 1.720. Perhitungan nilai wajar dengan PE ratio sebesar Rp 2,911 dibandingkan dengan harga pasar per 31 Desember 2011 sebesar Rp 1,770 juga memberikan hasil harga saham ADRO undervalued.

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Before taking an investment decision it is required to make accurate analysis in order to maximize gains and minimize losses. Fundamental analysis can be used to find the fair value of stock as a basis for investment decision whether to buy, hold or sell. Based on calculation on valuation of share using Free Cash to Equity method, the market price of Adaro share is undervalued. The fair value of Adaro share are Rp 2.146 (optimistic scenario) and Rp 1.930 (pessimistic scenario) while the market price as on September 30, 2011 is Rp 1.720. Calculation of intrinsic value using PE ratio resulting amount of Rp 2,911 compared with the market price of December 31, 2011 amounts Rp 1,770 also shows the ADRO is still undervalued."

"Valuasi dilakukan untuk menghitung dan mengestimasi nilai wajar dari sebuah perusahaan. Hasil valuasi dapat dibandingkan dengan nilai pasar dari sebuah perusahaan yang menghasilkan rekomendasi investasi kepada investor. Valuasi dapat dilakukan dengan analisis fundamental dan analisis teknikal. Studi ini akan membahas mengenai analisis fundamental dengan menggunakan pendekatan top-down approach, dimana analisis fundamental ini memperhatika analisis makroekonomi, analisis industri, analisis perusahaan, dan valuasi nilai perusahaan beserta analisis sensitivitas dan simulasi. Metode valuasi yang digunakan adalah metode discounted cash flow yang dibagi lagi menjadi tiga metode, yaitu free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to the equity, dan dividend discount model. Data yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah data makroekonomi, data industri, dan data historis laporan keuangan perusahaan yang sangat diperlukan untuk memberikan asumsi yang berkaitan dengan proyeksi pertumbuhan perusahaan di masa yang akan datang. Dengan melakukan analisis tersebut, studi ini diharapkan dapat memberikan pengetahuan mengenai prospek makroekonomi, industri, dan nilai wajar perusahaan PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk.

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Valuation is performed to calculate and estimate intrinsic value of a company. The result of valuation could be compared with the market price of a company to provide an investment recommendation to investors. This study aims to examine fundamental analysis with top down approach, these fundamental analysis consist of macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis, company analysis, company valuation, sensitivity analysis, and simulation.

There are three discounted cash flow methods that are used in this study, as such free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and dividend discount model. Macroeconomic data, industry data, historical financial statements of company are used in this study to provide and strengthen the assumptions related to company rsquo s growth projection in the future. By doing this analysis, this study is expected to provide insights about macroeconomic and industry prospect, and intrinsic value of PT. Kalbe Farma Tbk."

"Kondisi pasar modal Indonesia yang sedang bullish sejak awal paruh kedua 2010 berdampak positif pada harga saharn-saham yang diperdagang di bursa efek Indonesia. Banyak emiten yang melihat harganya saham naik pesat seiring dengan mcningkatnya sentimen beli investor. Hal ini terutama berlak:u untuk perusahaan pertarnbangan unggulan, seperti PT. Adaro Energy, Tbk. (ADRO) yang harga saharnnya melonjak sekitar 40% dalam waktu sekitar 2 bulan saja. Namun, saham ADRO yang kini dil1argai dalam kisaran pertengnban dua ribuan menimbulkan pertanyaan baru bagi sebagian investor, yaitu apakah saham tersebut masih layak beli .atau tidak. Tesis ini mencoba untuk menjawab pertanyaan tersebut dengan menganalisis fundamental perusahaan untuk mendapatkan nilai intr1nsik dari saham perusahaan tersebut. HasH valuasi menggtl!lakan pendekatan discounted cash flow (DCF} dengan metode free cash flow to firm (FCFF) menunjukkan bnbwa nilai intrinsik saharn ADRO saat ini adalah sebesar Rp. 2,393 per lembar saham. Membandingkan basil tersebut dengan harga penutupan ADRO sebesar Rp. 2,375 pada tanggal 3 Desember 2010 menunjukkan bahwa saat ini saham tersebut sudnb fairly valued.

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Indonesian capital market that has been in bullish condition since the beginning of second half of 2010 bas had positive impact on the price of stocks traded in Indonesian stock exchange. Many listed companies have seen their stock prices soaring for the past few months as investors went in a buying frenzy. This is especially true for blue chip mining companies, such as PT. Adaro Energy, Tbk. (ADRO) whose stock price had risen approximately around 40% just within around 2 months. However, ADRO stocks CU1relltly priced at mid two thousands as of November 2010, now pose a new question for the investors as to whether it is still a good buy or not. This thesis tried to answer that question by analyzing the companys fundamentals to come up with an intrinsic value of the company's stock. Result of valuation using discounted cash flow (DCF) approach with free cash flow to firm (FCFF) method shows that ADRO stocks intrinsic value is currently at Rp. 2,393 per share. Comparing that to Rp. 2,375 ADRO closing price of December 3"' ,2010 shows that the stock is currently fairly valued."

"Tesis ini membahas tentang valuasi harga saham PT. Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) dan PT. Ultrajaya Tbk (ULTJ) dengan menggunakan metode Discounted Earning Approach, Price To Book Value Ratio, dan Enterprise Value to EBITDA. Analisa dan pembahasan dilakukan dengan menggunakan top down approach dimulai dari analisa secara makro, analisa industri dan analisa terhadap kinerja perusahaan melalui posisi keuangan perusahaan secara historikal untuk kemudian dilakukan proyeksi terhadap posisi keuangan di masa yang akan datang dan nilai intrinsik saham di masa sekarang dan akan datang. Nilai intrinsik saham tersebut kemudian dibandingkan dengan harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia agar dapat diketahui apakah nilai intrinsik saham overvalued atau undervalued terhadap harga saham tersebut di Bursa Efek Jakarta sehingga dapat dijadikan pertimbangan untuk pengambilan keputusan bagi investor yang berkeinginan untuk berinvestasi pada saham MYOR dan saham ULTJ.

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This thesis discusses about the stock price valuation of PT. Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) and PT. Ultrajaya Tbk (ULTJ) by using Discount Earning Approach Method, Price To Book Value Ratio, and Enterprise Value To EBITDA. This analysis and evaluation is performed by using a top-down approach starting from the macro analysis, industry analysis, and analysis of the performance of the company through the historical financial position and then made projections on its financial position in the future and the intrinsic value of the stock at the present and future. Intrinsic value of the share is then compared to the share price on the stock market in order to know whether the intrinsic value of the stock is overvalued or undervalued so that it can be taken into consideration for the decision-making for investors who wish to invest in MYOR dan ULTJ stocks."

"ABSTRAKTujuan penulisan karya akhir ini adalah untuk melakukan perhitungan untuk mengestimasi nilai wajar saham PT Arwana Citra Mulia Tbk (ARNA) dengan metode analisis Discounted Cash Flow melalui pendekatan Free Cash Flow to The equity dan metode Relative Valuation melalui pendekatan Price to Earning Ratio. Kemudian membandingkan hasil estimasi nilai wajar dengan harga pasar untuk menentukan apakah harga saham over, fair atau undervalued. Dan tujuan terakhir adalah untuk melakukan analisis kualitatif dan kuantitatif untuk mendapatkan informasi yang memadai mengenai kinerja masalalu dan prospek perusahaan.

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ABSTRACTThe purpose of writing this thesis is to perform calculations to estimate the fair value of the shares of PT Arwana Citra Mulia Tbk (ARNA) with the method of Free Cash Flow to the equity and Relative Valuation Price to Earning Ratio. Then compare the results of the estimated fair value at market prices to determine whether the stock price over, fair or undervalued. And the final goal is to perform qualitative and quantitative analysis to obtain adequate information about the past performance and prospects of the company."