ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji theory opportunistic cycles di Indonesia sebagai negara new democracy. Selain itu juga dianalisis mengenai bagaimana pengaruh fragmentasi dan akses media terhadap magnitude political budget cycle (PBC).

Dalam penelitian ini data yang digunakan pada level kabupaten/kota periode 2007-2013. Spesifikasi standar dari dynamic panel data digunakan untuk menguji peran fragmentasi dan media terhadap magnitude PBC. Model logit digunakan untuk mengestimasi mengenai dampak perubahan komposisi belanja terhadap peluang menang petahana.

Berdasarkan hasil empiris, ditemukan bukti sebagai berikut : (1) political budget cycle terjadi di Indonesia terutama pada belanja pendidikan, kesehatan, birokrasi dan sosial; (2) fragmentasi berperan dalam memperkuat terjadinya PBC terutama belanja pendidikan; (3) dampak akses media terhadap magnitude PBC cenderung memperkuat magnitude PBC belanja infrastruktur dan memperlemah magnitude PBC pada belanja birokrasi; (4) perubahan komposisi belanja kesehatan, infrastruktur dan birokrasi, serta dukungan partai politik dapat meningkatkan peluang menang petahana dalam pemilihan kepala daerah.

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ABSTRACTThis paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in Indonesia as a new democracy. It also investigate the effect of political fragmentation as well as access to mass media on magnitude of the political budget cycle.

The study used local government data in the period 2007-2013. Standard specifications of dynamic panel data are used to test the role of fragmentation and media on magnitude of PBC. The logit model is used to examine how  composition of spending affect the chances of incumbents to win election.

Based on empirical results, evidence is found as follows: (1) political budget cycle occurs in Indonesia, especially in education, health, bureaucratic and social expenditure; (2) fragmentation plays a role in strengthening the occurrence of PBCs, especially education spending; (3) the impact of media access on the magnitude of PBC tends to strengthen the PBC's magnitude of infrastructure spending and weaken the PBC's magnitude on bureaucratic spending; (4) changes in the composition of health spending, infrastructure and bureaucracy, and the support of political parties can increase the chances of winning incumbents in regional head elections.