Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh
macroeconomic uncertainty dan
financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat terhadap pasar modal saham konvensional dan saham syariah di
emerging markets, Amerika Serikat dan ASEAN 5 yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand dan Filipina. Data yang digunakan dari tahun 2002 sampai dengan 2017. Ada 4 metode
asset pricing yang digunakan yaitu
Fama-French 3 Factor Model, Carhart 4 Factor Model, Fama-French 5 Factor Model, dan
Bali, Brown and Tang model. Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan 3 jenis metode olah data. Pertama menggunakan
ordinary least square untuk melihat bagaimana pengaruh
uncertainty Amerika Serikat. Yang kedua dan ketiga yang dilakukan adalah
robustness check yaitu mengolah data dengan ARCH/GARCH dan mengurangkan indeks pasar modal dengan
treasury bills rate. Hasil penelitian ini, yang pertama menyatakan bahwa
macroeconomic uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham konvensional
emerging markets, Indonesia, Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand dan Filipina. Yang kedua,
financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham konvensional
emerging markets dan Singapura jika mengunakan metode
French 5 Factor Model dan
Bali, Brown and Tang model. Yang ketiga,
macroeconomic uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham syariah
emerging markets, Singapura dan Malaysia. Yang keempat,
financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham syariah Singapura jika menggunakan model
French 5 Factor Model dan
Bali, Brown and Tang model.
This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and financial uncertainty from the United States on conventional stock market and Islamic stocks in emerging markets, the United States and ASEAN 5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. The data was used from 2002 to 2017. There were 4 asset pricing methods used, namely Fama-French 3 Factor Model, Carhart 4 Factor Model, Fama-French 5 Factor Model, and Bali, Brown and Tang model. In this study, 3 types of data processing methods were used. The first one used was ordinary least square to see how the United States uncertainty affects. The second and third conducted is robustness check, namely processing data with ARCH/GARCH and subtracting stock market index with treasury bills rate. The results of this study, the first stated that macroeconomic uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the conventional stock market of emerging markets, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Secondly, financial uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the conventional stock market of emerging markets and Singapore if using the French 5 Factor Model and Bali, Brown and Tang models. Third, macroeconomic uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the Islamic stock market in emerging markets, Singapore and Malaysia. Fourth, financial uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the Islamic capital markets of Singapore if using the French 5 Factor Model and Bali, Brown and Tang models.