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ABSTRAKBerbagai studi empiris menemukan hubungan positif, netral atau bahkan negatif
antara risiko idiosyncratic dan imbal hasil. Nartea, et.al. (2011) menemukan
hubungan positif antara keduanya pada Pasar Modal Indonesia, dan strategi
perdagangan berdasarkan volatilitas idiosyncratic dapat menghasilkan profit.
Penelitian ini menguji topik yang sama dengan pendekatan non parametrik (Goyal
dan Clara, 2003). Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa risiko pasar dapat
memprediksi imbal hasil saham secara negatif dan konsisten terhadap model,
periode penelitian dan krisis ekonomi. Sementara, risiko idiosyncratic secara
konsisten tidak dapat memprediksi imbal hasil saham dan kemungkinan hanya
relevan dalam memprediksi imbal hasil saham berkapitalisasi kecil.
ABSTRACTEmpirical studies found positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and
return, while others found either no relationship or even negative. Nartea, et.al.
(2011) showed positive relationship between them in Indonesian Stock Market,
and trading strategy based on idiosyncratic volatility could get profit at some
extent. I examine the topic with non parametric approach, which is indirect
decomposition method (Goyal and Clara, 2003). I find that market risk predicts
stocks? excess return negatively and robust to model, period and economic crisis.
More importantly, idiosyncratic risk consistently does not predict stocks? excess
return, however it could be relevant on predicting small stocks? excess return.;Empirical studies found positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and
return, while others found either no relationship or even negative. Nartea, et.al.
(2011) showed positive relationship between them in Indonesian Stock Market,
and trading strategy based on idiosyncratic volatility could get profit at some
extent. I examine the topic with non parametric approach, which is indirect
decomposition method (Goyal and Clara, 2003). I find that market risk predicts
stocks? excess return negatively and robust to model, period and economic crisis.
More importantly, idiosyncratic risk consistently does not predict stocks? excess
return, however it could be relevant on predicting small stocks? excess return., Empirical studies found positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and
return, while others found either no relationship or even negative. Nartea, et.al.
(2011) showed positive relationship between them in Indonesian Stock Market,
and trading strategy based on idiosyncratic volatility could get profit at some
extent. I examine the topic with non parametric approach, which is indirect
decomposition method (Goyal and Clara, 2003). I find that market risk predicts
stocks? excess return negatively and robust to model, period and economic crisis.
More importantly, idiosyncratic risk consistently does not predict stocks? excess
return, however it could be relevant on predicting small stocks? excess return.]